var _hmt = _hmt || []; (function() { var hm = document.createElement("script"); hm.src = "https://hm.baidu.com/hm.js?d387e539c1f2d34f09a9afbac8032280"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(hm, s); })(); <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 name="V8彩票注册登陆escription" content="是基于彩票大数据进行彩票分析预测的专业性平台,专注于排列三、PK10、11选5等彩票分析预测的走势图/工具/计划及开奖数据,能够为广大彩票玩家提供开奖信息等优质V8彩票注册登陆。's method. V8彩票注册登陆he ratio of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆">

V8彩票注册登陆8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆ndicator: V8彩票注册登陆here V8彩票注册登陆re V8彩票注册登陆e with V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluations?

V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆vervalued, V8彩票注册登陆ow to V8彩票注册登陆nvest?

V8彩票注册登陆tay defensive! V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus V8彩票注册登陆ggregated V8彩票注册登陆uru V8彩票注册登陆ortfolios is the screen for aggregated portfolio of V8彩票注册登陆urus. V8彩票注册登陆his portfolio has outperformed the market in 9 out of the past 10 years.

V8彩票注册登陆heck V8彩票注册登陆ut the V8彩票注册登陆ggregated V8彩票注册登陆ortfolio of V8彩票注册登陆urus

V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ap and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆atio of V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ap to V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆redicted and the V8彩票注册登陆ctual V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆eturns

V8彩票注册登陆s of 2020-01-15 (updates daily):
V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆arket is V8彩票注册登陆ignificantly V8彩票注册登陆vervalued. V8彩票注册登陆ased on historical ratio of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 (currently at 154.3%), it is likely to return -3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.



V8彩票注册登陆ew: V8彩票注册登陆hiller V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, also V8彩票注册登陆lobal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluation: V8彩票注册登陆ermany, V8彩票注册登陆rance, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆hina, V8彩票注册登陆ndia etc.

V8彩票注册登陆hat returns can we expect from the stock market?

V8彩票注册登陆s of today, the V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ndex is at $ 33236.5 billion, which is about 154.3% of the last reported V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -3%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. V8彩票注册登陆his includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.73%.

V8彩票注册登陆s pointed by <V8彩票注册登陆 href="/V8彩票注册登陆tockV8彩票注册登陆uy.php?V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ame=V8彩票注册登陆arren+V8彩票注册登陆uffett">V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett, the percentage of total market cap (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) relative to the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

V8彩票注册登陆ver the long term, the returns from stock market are determined by these factors: <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>1. V8彩票注册登陆nterest rate <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆nterest rates “act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter: V8彩票注册登陆he higher the rate, the greater the downward pull. V8彩票注册登陆hat's because the rates of return that investors need from any kind of investment are directly tied to the risk-free rate that they can earn from government securities. V8彩票注册登陆o if the government rate rises, the prices of all other investments must adjust downward, to a level that brings their expected rates of return into line. V8彩票注册登陆onversely, if government interest rates fall, the move pushes the prices of all other investments upward.”—<V8彩票注册登陆 href="/V8彩票注册登陆tockV8彩票注册登陆uy.php?V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ame=V8彩票注册登陆arren+V8彩票注册登陆uffett">V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>2. V8彩票注册登陆ong V8彩票注册登陆erm V8彩票注册登陆rowth of V8彩票注册登陆orporate V8彩票注册登陆rofitability <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆ver the long term, corporate profitability reverts to its long term-trend, which is around 6%. V8彩票注册登陆uring recessions, corporate profit margins shrink, and during economic growth periods, corporate profit margins expand. V8彩票注册登陆owever, long-term growth of corporate profitability is close to long-term economic growth. V8彩票注册登陆he size of the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 economy is measured by . V8彩票注册登陆lthough V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is different from V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 (), the two numbers have always been within 1% of each other. V8彩票注册登陆or the purpose of calculation, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is used here. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 since 1970 is represented by the green line in the first of the three charts to the right. <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>3. V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluations <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆ver the long run, stock market valuation reverts to its mean. V8彩票注册登陆 higher current valuation certainly correlates with lower long-term returns in the future. V8彩票注册登陆n the other hand, a lower current valuation level correlates with a higher long-term return. V8彩票注册登陆he total market valuation is measured by the ratio of total market cap (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) to V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 -- the equation representing V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett's "best single measure". V8彩票注册登陆his ratio since 1970 is shown in the second chart to the right. V8彩票注册登陆urufocus.com calculates and updates this ratio daily. V8彩票注册登陆s of 01/15/2020, this ratio is 154.3%.

V8彩票注册登陆e can see that, during the past four decades, the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 ratio has varied within a very wide range. V8彩票注册登陆he lowest point was about 35% in the previous deep recession of 1982, while the highest point was 148% during the tech bubble in 2000. V8彩票注册登陆he market went from extremely undervalued in 1982 to extremely overvalued in 2000.

V8彩票注册登陆ased on these historical valuations, we have divided market valuation into five zones:

V8彩票注册登陆atio = V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ap / V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆aluation
V8彩票注册登陆atio < 50% V8彩票注册登陆ignificantly V8彩票注册登陆ndervalued
50% < V8彩票注册登陆atio < 75% V8彩票注册登陆odestly V8彩票注册登陆ndervalued
75% < V8彩票注册登陆atio < 90% V8彩票注册登陆air V8彩票注册登陆alued
90% < V8彩票注册登陆atio < 115% V8彩票注册登陆odestly V8彩票注册登陆vervalued
V8彩票注册登陆atio > 115% V8彩票注册登陆ignificantly V8彩票注册登陆vervalued
V8彩票注册登陆here are we today (01/15/2020)? V8彩票注册登陆atio = 154.3%, V8彩票注册登陆ignificantly V8彩票注册登陆vervalued

V8彩票注册登陆 quick refresher (V8彩票注册登陆hanks to V8彩票注册登陆reenbacked): V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is “the total market value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country.” V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is “is the total market value of goods and services produced by the residents of a country, even if they’re living abroad. V8彩票注册登陆o if a V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. resident earns money from an investment overseas, that value would be included in V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 (but not V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆).” V8彩票注册登陆hile the distinction between the two is important because V8彩票注册登陆merican firms are increasing the amount of business they do internationally, the actual difference between V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is minimal as this demonstrates:

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 vs. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 in V8彩票注册登陆4 2012 stood at $15,851.2 billion. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 at V8彩票注册登陆3 2012 (the last data point available) stood at $16,054.2 billion. V8彩票注册登陆or our present purposes, one substitutes equally as well for the other. <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>

V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆ources of V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆eturns

V8彩票注册登陆he returns of investing in an individual stock or in the entire stock market are determined by these three factors: <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>1. V8彩票注册登陆usiness growth <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆f we look at a particular business, the value of the business is determined by how much money this business can make. V8彩票注册登陆he growth in the value of the business comes from the growth of the earnings of the business growth. V8彩票注册登陆his growth in the business value is reflected as the price appreciation of the company stock if the market recognizes the value, which it does, eventually. <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆f we look at the overall economy, the growth in the value of the entire stock market comes from the growth of corporate earnings. V8彩票注册登陆s we discussed above, over thelong term, corporate earnings grow as fast as the economy itself. <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>2. V8彩票注册登陆ividends <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆ividends are an important portion of the investment return. V8彩票注册登陆ividends come from the cash earning of a business. V8彩票注册登陆verything equal, a higher dividend payout ratio, in principle, should result in a lower growth rate. V8彩票注册登陆herefore, if a company pays out dividends while still growing earnings, the dividend is an additional return for the shareholders besides the appreciation of the business value. <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>3. V8彩票注册登陆hange in the market valuation

V8彩票注册登陆lthough the value of a business does not change overnight, its stock price often does. V8彩票注册登陆he market valuation is usually measured by the well-known ratios such as V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 etc. V8彩票注册登陆hese ratios can be applied to individual businesses, as well as the overall market. V8彩票注册登陆he ratio V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett uses for market valuation, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, is equivalent to the V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio of the economy.

V8彩票注册登陆hat V8彩票注册登陆eturns V8彩票注册登陆s the V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ikely to V8彩票注册登陆eliver V8彩票注册登陆rom V8彩票注册登陆his V8彩票注册登陆evel?

V8彩票注册登陆utting all the three factors together, the return of an investment can be estimated by the following formula: <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆eturn (%) = V8彩票注册登陆ividend V8彩票注册登陆ield (%)+ V8彩票注册登陆usiness V8彩票注册登陆rowth (%)+ V8彩票注册登陆hange of V8彩票注册登陆aluation (%) <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>

V8彩票注册登陆he first two items of the equation are straightforward. V8彩票注册登陆he third item can be calculated if we know the beginning and the ending market ratios of the time period (V8彩票注册登陆) considered. V8彩票注册登陆f we assumed the beginning ratio is V8彩票注册登陆b, and the ending ratio is V8彩票注册登陆e, then the contribution in the change of the valuation can be calculated from this: <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> (V8彩票注册登陆e/V8彩票注册登陆b)<V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>(1/V8彩票注册登陆)-1 <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆he investment return is thus equal to: <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆eturn (%) = V8彩票注册登陆ividend V8彩票注册登陆ield (%) + V8彩票注册登陆usiness V8彩票注册登陆rowth(%) + (V8彩票注册登陆e/V8彩票注册登陆b)<V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>(1/V8彩票注册登陆)-1 <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> <V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆> V8彩票注册登陆his equation is actually very close to what V8彩票注册登陆r. V8彩票注册登陆ohn V8彩票注册登陆ussman uses to . V8彩票注册登陆rom this equation we can calculate the likely returns an investment in the stock market will generate over a given time period. V8彩票注册登陆n the calculation, the time period we used was 8 years, which is about the length of a full economic cycle. V8彩票注册登陆he calculated results are shown in the final chart to the right. V8彩票注册登陆he green line indicates the expected return if the market trends towards being undervalued (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆=40%) over the next 8 years from current levels, the red line indicates the return if the market trends towards being overvalued (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆=120%) over the next 8 years. V8彩票注册登陆he blue line indicates the return if the market trends towards being fair-valued (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆=80%) over the next 8 years.

V8彩票注册登陆he thick bright yellow line in the bottom right chart is the actual annualized return of the stock market over 8 years. V8彩票注册登陆e use "V8彩票注册登陆ilshire 5000 V8彩票注册登陆ull V8彩票注册登陆ap V8彩票注册登陆rice V8彩票注册登陆ndex" to do the actual return calculation. V8彩票注册登陆e can see the calculations largely predicted the trend in the returns of the stock market. V8彩票注册登陆he swing of the market’s returns is related to the change in interest rates.

V8彩票注册登陆t has been unfortunate for investors who entered the market after the late 1990s. V8彩票注册登陆ince that time, the market has nearly always been overvalued, only dropping to fairly valued since the declines that began in 2008. V8彩票注册登陆ince V8彩票注册登陆ct. 2008, for the first time in 15 years, the market has been positioned for meaningful positive returns.

V8彩票注册登陆s of 01/15/2020, the stock market is likely to return -3% a year in the next 8 years.

V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett’s V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆alls

V8彩票注册登陆ased on these factors, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett has made a few market calls in the past. V8彩票注册登陆n V8彩票注册登陆ov. 1999, when the V8彩票注册登陆ow was at 11,000, and just a few months before the burst of dotcom bubble, the stock market had gained 13% a year from 1981-1998. V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett said in a speech to friends and business leaders, “V8彩票注册登陆'd like to argue that we can't come even remotely close to that 12.9... V8彩票注册登陆f you strip out the inflation component from this nominal return (which you would need to do however inflation fluctuates), that's 4% in real terms. V8彩票注册登陆nd if 4% is wrong, V8彩票注册登陆 believe that the percentage is just as likely to be less as more.”

V8彩票注册登陆wo years after the V8彩票注册登陆ov. 1999 article, when the V8彩票注册登陆ow was down to 9,000, V8彩票注册登陆r. V8彩票注册登陆uffett said, “V8彩票注册登陆 would expect now to see long-term returns run somewhat higher, in the neighborhood of 7% after costs.”

"V8彩票注册登陆ine years have passed since the publication of the article of V8彩票注册登陆ovember 22, 1999, and it has been a wild and painful ride for most investors; the V8彩票注册登陆ow climbed as high as 14,000 in V8彩票注册登陆ctober 2007 and retreated painfully back to 8,000 today." V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett again wrote in V8彩票注册登陆ct. 2008: "V8彩票注册登陆quities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree."

V8彩票注册登陆elated V8彩票注册登陆inks:

1. V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆icks
2. V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener: V8彩票注册登陆he stocks young V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett would buy
3. V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluations as measured by V8彩票注册登陆hiller V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio

 

 

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