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V8彩票注册登陆ome thoughts on the close-out chain's business


V8彩票注册登陆llie's V8彩票注册登陆argain V8彩票注册登陆utlet (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆:V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) operates a chain of more than 300 discount retail stores throughout the eastern half of the V8彩票注册登陆nited V8彩票注册登陆tates. V8彩票注册登陆he value proposition to customers is an assortment of branded merchandise in a treasure hunt shopping experience at dramatically reduced prices. V8彩票注册登陆ased on management’s assessment, their products are sold at up to 70% below department stores – what they call “fancy stores” – and up to 20% to 50% below prices at mass market retailers. V8彩票注册登陆o put it succinctly, they sell “good stuff cheap”. V8彩票注册登陆llie’s is able to offer these discounted prices to customers because they acquire an assortment of constantly changing closeout merchandise from hundreds of retailers and manufacturers who either want to or need to liquidate inventory. V8彩票注册登陆his means a family may be able to find a toy from one of the earlier V8彩票注册登陆oy V8彩票注册登陆tory movies for their child for $10 when the current V8彩票注册登陆oy V8彩票注册登陆tory 4 model might sell for $15 or $20 at V8彩票注册登陆almart (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆:V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆).

V8彩票注册登陆ven as the retail world moves online, there’s reason to believe that V8彩票注册登陆llie’s relationship with its manufactures will remain. V8彩票注册登陆s noted in a recent V8彩票注册登陆orbes profile on the company, “V8彩票注册登陆 lot of vendors would prefer that [their closeout merchandise] is not advertised all over the internet.”

V8彩票注册登陆he store base has grown at a mid-teens compounded annual growth rate in recent years.

V8彩票注册登陆s a result, annual revenues have followed a comparable path higher.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he unit economics show the attraction of continued store growth. V8彩票注册登陆he investment to open a new V8彩票注册登陆llie’s is roughly $1 million (including inventory, fixtures and other equipment). V8彩票注册登陆n that outlay, a store will generate roughly $4 million in annual revenues and roughly $500,000 in operating income. V8彩票注册登陆cross the base, V8彩票注册登陆llie’s generates more than $400,000 per box in cash flow from operations. V8彩票注册登陆s that math suggests, the payback period on a new unit is roughly two years, so it’s not hard to see why investors cheer as the company continues to grow the unit count at an impressive clip. V8彩票注册登陆n addition, management believes that there’s room to run. V8彩票注册登陆ased on their research, they believe the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. can support somewhere around 1,000 V8彩票注册登陆llie’s – or nearly three times as many as they have today.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆ince 2003, V8彩票注册登陆llie’s has been run by co-founder V8彩票注册登陆ark V8彩票注册登陆utler. V8彩票注册登陆hat changed last week when he passed away. V8彩票注册登陆he concern of many investors is “key man” risk. V8彩票注册登陆’d argue that some of V8彩票注册登陆utler’s own words support that conclusion. V8彩票注册登陆ere is an excerpt from V8彩票注册登陆utler at the 2019 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆onference:

“V8彩票注册登陆his is the secret sauce. V8彩票注册登陆t's relationships. V8彩票注册登陆t's our buying team. V8彩票注册登陆e have an incredibly highly experienced and disciplined merchant team. V8彩票注册登陆y three key merchants have been with me a combined 64 years… that's what it's all about - it's developing the relationships, and these are the key buyers. V8彩票注册登陆 can tell you that below these, we have what we call the minor leagues, and those minor leaguers, all of a sudden, they've been with us five, six years. V8彩票注册登陆ow they're tenured veterans and they're becoming dangerous. V8彩票注册登陆o, we're building the merchant team, the buying team.”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆ow many of these supplier relationships were V8彩票注册登陆llie’s, as opposed to V8彩票注册登陆utler’s? V8彩票注册登陆ill there be a smooth transition from his 15-plus years of leadership to a new V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆? V8彩票注册登陆hile V8彩票注册登陆 take some comfort from the fact that the relationship between V8彩票注册登陆llie’s and suppliers is clearly beneficial to both parties (they have been working with their top 15 suppliers for an average of 13 years), V8彩票注册登陆 do think it would be imprudent to assume no risk of a short-term hiccup, especially when you need the sharp buying required to support best in class gross and operating margins.

V8彩票注册登陆or what it’s worth, V8彩票注册登陆’ve heard scuttlebutt from a fellow investor that suggests V8彩票注册登陆utler still approved somewhat immaterial purchases until his death. V8彩票注册登陆 do wonder if his second in command is truly ready to take the lead. V8彩票注册登陆f course, if you’re a long-term investor like myself, you could argue a temporary blip as incoming V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆ohn V8彩票注册登陆wygert gets his feet under him may ultimately prove to be an opportunity as opposed to a material long-term risk to the business (note that V8彩票注册登陆wygert has worked with V8彩票注册登陆utler at V8彩票注册登陆llie’s since the early 2000’s).


V8彩票注册登陆or those who follow my work, you know that V8彩票注册登陆 think highly of V8彩票注册登陆ollar V8彩票注册登陆eneral (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆:V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) and V8彩票注册登陆ollar V8彩票注册登陆ree (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆:V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆hey are among a short list of retailers that V8彩票注册登陆 believe will be able to withstand the pressures brought by the continued growth of e-commerce, enabling them to keep generating attractive returns on invested capital. V8彩票注册登陆fter the work V8彩票注册登陆’ve completed on V8彩票注册登陆llie’s, V8彩票注册登陆 believe they belong in that bucket as well. V8彩票注册登陆ike those names, V8彩票注册登陆 also think that many of the people analyzing the business may underappreciate the value offered to their core customers because it’s not the world they live in. V8彩票注册登陆he average money manager does not spend his or her time shopping at V8彩票注册登陆llie’s and does not truly appreciate what it might mean to save $10 when buying a V8彩票注册登陆hristmas present for your kids.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆n terms of the valuation, V8彩票注册登陆llie’s is likely to earn nearly $2 per share this year. V8彩票注册登陆t $60, the stock trades around 30 times earnings. V8彩票注册登陆hile that probably sounds high, V8彩票注册登陆 think it properly reflects the fact that each $1 million that the company invests to build a new store is likely to create somewhere between $5 million and $10 million in value for shareholders. V8彩票注册登陆f you believe that the company has a long runway for continued unit growth ahead, you can see how paying a higher than average multiple on current earnings will still work out well for long-term investors.

V8彩票注册登陆ersonally, V8彩票注册登陆’m not ready to make an investment quite yet. V8彩票注册登陆 need more time to look at some of their peers, particularly those that have ultimately failed while operating a similar business model. V8彩票注册登陆owever, if that exercise doesn’t cause much concern, it’s likely that V8彩票注册登陆’ll invest in V8彩票注册登陆llie’s.

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