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V8彩票注册登陆italiy V8彩票注册登陆atsenelson
V8彩票注册登陆italiy V8彩票注册登陆atsenelson

V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆verage V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆s V8彩票注册登陆vervalued V8彩票注册登陆omewhere V8彩票注册登陆etween V8彩票注册登陆remendously and V8彩票注册登陆normously

V8彩票注册登陆y firm is having little success finding solid companies at attractive valuations


V8彩票注册登陆y business is to constantly look for new stocks by running stock screens, endlessly reading (blogs, research, magazines, newspapers), looking at the holdings of respected investors, talking to a large network of investment professionals, attending conferences, scouring through ideas published on value investor networks, and finally, scouring a large (and growing) watch list of companies to buy at a significant margin of safety.

V8彩票注册登陆ith all of that, my firm is having little success finding solid companies at attractive valuations.

V8彩票注册登陆on’t just take my word for it. V8彩票注册登陆ake a look at several charts, below, that show the magnitude of the stock market’s overvaluation and, more importantly, put it into historical context.

V8彩票注册登陆ach chart examines stock market valuation from a slightly differently perspective, but each arrives at the same conclusion: the average stock is overvalued — somewhere between tremendously and enormously. V8彩票注册登陆f you don’t know whether “enormously” is greater than “tremendously” or vice versa, don’t worry, V8彩票注册登陆 don’t know either. V8彩票注册登陆ut this is my point exactly: V8彩票注册登陆hen an asset class is significantly overvalued and continues to get overvalued, quantifying its overvaluation brings little value.

V8彩票注册登陆et’s go to the charts. V8彩票注册登陆he first chart shows price-to-earnings of the V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆 500 in relation to its historical average. V8彩票注册登陆he average stock today is trading at 73% above its historical average valuation. V8彩票注册登陆here are only two other times in history that stocks were more expensive than they are today: just before the V8彩票注册登陆reat V8彩票注册登陆epression hit and in the 1999 run-up to the dotcom bubble burst.


V8彩票注册登陆e know how the history played in both cases — consequently stocks declined, a lot. V8彩票注册登陆ased on over a century of history, we are fairly sure that, this time too, stock valuations will at some point mean-revert and stock markets will decline. V8彩票注册登陆fter all, price-to-earnings behaves like a pendulum that swings around the mean, and today that pendulum has swung far above the mean.

V8彩票注册登陆hat we don’t know is how investors will fare in the interim. V8彩票注册登陆efore the inevitable decline, will price-to-earnings revisit the pre-V8彩票注册登陆reat V8彩票注册登陆epression level of 95% above average, or will it say hello to the pre-dotcom crash level of 164% above average? V8彩票注册登陆obody knows.

V8彩票注册登陆ne chart is not enough. V8彩票注册登陆ere’s another, called the “V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆ndicator.”V8彩票注册登陆pparently, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett (V8彩票注册登陆rades, V8彩票注册登陆ortfolio) likes to use it to take the temperature of market valuations. V8彩票注册登陆hink of this chart as a price-to-sales ratio for the entire V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. economy, that is, the market value of all equities divided by V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆he higher the price-to-sales ratio, the more expensive stocks are.

V8彩票注册登陆his chart tells a similar story to the first one. V8彩票注册登陆hough V8彩票注册登陆 was not around in 1929, we can imagine there were a lot of bulls celebrating and cheerleading every day as the market marched higher in 1927, 1928, and the first 10 months of 1929. V8彩票注册登陆he cheerleaders probably made a lot of intelligent, well-reasoned arguments, which could be put into two buckets: V8彩票注册登陆irst: “V8彩票注册登陆his time is different” (it never is). V8彩票注册登陆econd: “V8彩票注册登陆es, stocks are overvalued, but we are still in the bull market.” (V8彩票注册登陆hey were right about this until they lost their shirts.)

V8彩票注册登陆 was investing during the 1999 bubble. V8彩票注册登陆 vividly remember the “V8彩票注册登陆his time is different” argument of 1999. V8彩票注册登陆t was the V8彩票注册登陆ew V8彩票注册登陆conomy vs. the old, and the V8彩票注册登陆ew was supposed to change or at least modify the rules of economic gravity. V8彩票注册登陆he economy was now supposed to grow at a much faster rate. V8彩票注册登陆ut economic growth over the past 20 years has not been any different than in the previous 20. V8彩票注册登陆ctually, V8彩票注册登陆 take that back — it’s been lower. V8彩票注册登陆rom 1980 to 2000 the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. economy’s real growth was about 3% a year, while from 2000 to now it has been about 2% a year.

V8彩票注册登陆inally, let’s look at a V8彩票注册登陆obin’s V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆atio chart. V8彩票注册登陆his chart simply shows the market value of equities in relation to their replacement cost. V8彩票注册登陆f you are a dentist, and dental practices are sold for a million dollars while the cost of opening a new practice (phone system, chairs, drills, x-ray equipment, etc.) is $500,000, then V8彩票注册登陆obin’s V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆atio is 2.0. V8彩票注册登陆he higher the ratio the more expensive stocks are. V8彩票注册登陆gain, this one tells the same story as the other two charts: V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. stocks are extremely expensive — and were more expensive only twice in the past hundred-plus years.

V8彩票注册登陆id the stock market decline cause the recession, or did the recession cause the stock market decline? V8彩票注册登陆he answer is not that important, because no one can predict a recession or a stock market decline.

V8彩票注册登陆n V8彩票注册登陆ecember 2007 V8彩票注册登陆 was one of the speakers at the V8彩票注册登陆olorado V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆ociety V8彩票注册登陆orecast V8彩票注册登陆inner. V8彩票注册登陆 large event, with a few hundred attendees. V8彩票注册登陆ne of the questions posed was “V8彩票注册登陆hen are we going into a recession?” V8彩票注册登陆 gave my usual, unimpressive “V8彩票注册登陆 don’t know” answer. V8彩票注册登陆he rest of the panel, who were well-respected, seasoned investment professionals with impressive pedigrees, offered their well-reasoned views that foresaw a recession in anywhere from six months to 18 months. V8彩票注册登陆ronically, as we discovered a year later through revised economic data, at the time of our discussion the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. economy was already in a recession.

V8彩票注册登陆y firm spends little time trying to predict the next recession, and we don’t try to figure out what will cause this market to roll over. V8彩票注册登陆ur ability to forecast is poor and is thus not worth the effort.

V8彩票注册登陆n argument can be made that stocks, even at high valuations, are not expensive in context of the current incredibly low interest rates. V8彩票注册登陆his argument sounds so true and logical, but there is a crucial embedded assumption that interest rates will stay at these levels for the next decade or two. V8彩票注册登陆n truth, no one knows when interest rates will go up or by how much. V8彩票注册登陆ut as that happens, stocks’ appearance of cheapness will dissipate.

V8彩票注册登陆ere’s another twist: V8彩票注册登陆f interest rates remain where they are today, or even decline, this will be a sign that the economy has big, deflationary (V8彩票注册登陆apan-like) problems. V8彩票注册登陆 zero-percent interest rate did not protect the valuations of V8彩票注册登陆apanese stocks from the horrors of deflation — V8彩票注册登陆apanese V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆s contracted despite the decline in rates. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. is maybe an exceptional nation, but the laws of economic gravity work here as they do elsewhere.

V8彩票注册登陆inally, buying overvalued stocks because bonds are even more overvalued has the feel of choosing a less painful poison. V8彩票注册登陆ow about being patient and not taking the poison at all?

V8彩票注册登陆ou may ask, how do we invest in an environment when the stock market is extremely expensive? V8彩票注册登陆he key word is invest. V8彩票注册登陆uying expensive stocks hoping that they’ll go even higher is not investing, it’s gambling. V8彩票注册登陆e don’t do that and won’t.

V8彩票注册登陆ur goal is to win a war, and to do that we may lose a few battles. V8彩票注册登陆t’s great to make money, but it is even more important not to lose it. V8彩票注册登陆f the market continues to climb higher, my firm’s portfolio will likely lag behind. V8彩票注册登陆he stocks we own will become fully valued, and we’ll sell them and hold cash.

V8彩票注册登陆ne thing is certain: V8彩票注册登陆e are not going to sacrifice our standards and let our portfolio be a byproduct of forced or irrational decisions. V8彩票注册登陆iming the market is impossible. V8彩票注册登陆 don’t know anyone who has done it successfully on a consistent and repeated basis. V8彩票注册登陆n the short run, stock market movements are completely random — as random as you guessing the next card on the blackjack table.

V8彩票注册登陆n contrast, valuing companies is not random. V8彩票注册登陆n the long run stocks revert to their fair value. V8彩票注册登陆f we assemble a portfolio of high-quality companies that are significantly undervalued, then we should do well in the long run. V8彩票注册登陆et in the short run we have little control over how the market will price our stocks.

V8彩票注册登陆he market doesn’t need to collapse for us to be buyers. V8彩票注册登陆he market falls in love and out of love with specific sectors and stocks all the time. V8彩票注册登陆e also spend a lot of time looking for stocks outside the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆., in countries that have a free market system and the rule of law.

V8彩票注册登陆e don’t own the market. V8彩票注册登陆hough the market may be overvalued, our portfolio is not.

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V8彩票注册登陆bout the author:

V8彩票注册登陆italiy V8彩票注册登陆atsenelson

V8彩票注册登陆italiy V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆atsenelson, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, is V8彩票注册登陆hief V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆fficer at  in V8彩票注册登陆enver, V8彩票注册登陆olo. V8彩票注册登陆e is the author of V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆ittle V8彩票注册登陆ook of V8彩票注册登陆ideways V8彩票注册登陆arkets (V8彩票注册登陆iley, V8彩票注册登陆ecember 2010). V8彩票注册登陆o receive V8彩票注册登陆italiy’s future articles by email or read his articles .
V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆anagement V8彩票注册登陆ssociates V8彩票注册登陆nc. is a value investing firm based in V8彩票注册登陆enver, V8彩票注册登陆olorado. V8彩票注册登陆ts main focus is on growing and preserving wealth for private investors and institutions while adhering to a disciplined value investment process, as detailed in V8彩票注册登陆italiy’s book V8彩票注册登陆 (V8彩票注册登陆iley, 2007).

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