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V8彩票注册登陆hat worked in the market from 1998-2008? V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆nder-V8彩票注册登陆alued V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ompanies and V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener

V8彩票注册登陆ctober 14, 2008

V8彩票注册登陆his is the V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 of the back testing study we conducted for the stocks that have been continuously traded from V8彩票注册登陆an. 1998 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. 2008. V8彩票注册登陆he roles of market valuation on investment returns over the past 10 years have been analyzed. V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger screener has been developed to find good companies at fair or undervalued prices.

V8彩票注册登陆n V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆 of the study we reported the role of business predictability in investment returns. V8彩票注册登陆e found that the more predictable the business is, the higher return of the stocks has to shareholders, even if valuation is not considered. V8彩票注册登陆he key factor here is that the probability of investment loss is much smaller for predictable companies if the stocks are held for long period of time.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆e also introduced the concept of V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank. V8彩票注册登陆egardless of the stock valuation, 5-star ranked stocks had an annualized median gain of 12.1%, while non-predictable companies had an annualized median gain of 1.1%. V8彩票注册登陆s a reference, all the 2403 stocks under study had an annualized median gain 3.1%.

V8彩票注册登陆s value investors, we always discuss the relationship between price and value. V8彩票注册登陆aluation certainly plays a very important role in the investment returns. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 of this study focuses on the roles of market valuation on the investment returns over the period from V8彩票注册登陆an. 1998 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. 2008.

V8彩票注册登陆ome V8彩票注册登陆uestions to V8彩票注册登陆nswer

V8彩票注册登陆efore we discuss the role of valuation, we would like to address some questions users had for V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆 of the work: the correlations between V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank and V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆eturns.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆hese are the questions from users and our answers:

V8彩票注册登陆akerkn:V8彩票注册登陆our back testing is assuming time-travel is possible. V8彩票注册登陆ou are using the predictability over the last 10 years to decide what stocks to have bought 10 years ago”.

V8彩票注册登陆nswer: V8彩票注册登陆hat you said is certainly valid, just as past performance is not a good indicator of future performance.

V8彩票注册登陆ut on the other hand, past underperformance is a good indicator of future underperformance. V8彩票注册登陆f a business did poorly at a bad economic times before, chances are it will do poorly again in future bad economic times.

V8彩票注册登陆usiness predictability is mainly determined by the nature of the business, less dependent on who runs it.

V8彩票注册登陆rom this we just proved what we already know: buying businesses with “proven and predictable” track record will reward investors.

V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆n order to further validate the idea, we used the data before V8彩票注册登陆an. 2005 to test the performances of stocks in 2005, and data before V8彩票注册登陆an. 2006 to test those for 2006, and so on. V8彩票注册登陆n this way, time does not travel back. V8彩票注册登陆he results are reported below in this article.

V8彩票注册登陆cedomaine1:V8彩票注册登陆f we had the actual data, the antithetical reply of the cautious skeptic would consist in pointing out the wide dispersion in the results and the relatively high value of some of the samples; as a consequence V8彩票注册登陆 would refuse to make any inference from the data. V8彩票注册登陆s the conclusion based on "predictability" sound? V8彩票注册登陆s the reasoning cogent? V8彩票注册登陆ould not such a result occur by chance even when no real differences exist? V8彩票注册登陆re the data too widely dispersed to make any sensible inference?”

V8彩票注册登陆nswer: V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he distribution of the market returns for the higher-ranked business is actually the least dispersed. V8彩票注册登陆he distribution for the non-predictable companies is much more dispersed, as shown in the chart and table below. V8彩票注册登陆f you only work with the highest ranked companies, you are working with a group of good companies. V8彩票注册登陆ou will miss some multi-baggers in the non-predictable companies, but you also miss the large percentage of loss there, too. V8彩票注册登陆he chance of having permanent loss is small.

5-V8彩票注册登陆tar 4 and 4.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar 3 and 3.5 V8彩票注册登陆tar 2 and 2.5 V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆npredictables V8彩票注册登陆ll
# of V8彩票注册登陆amples 80 160 160 170 1833 2403
V8彩票注册登陆edian 12.1% 10.2% 8.7% 6.5% 1.1% 3.1%
V8彩票注册登陆tandard V8彩票注册登陆eviation 8.1% 8.3% 12.3% 11.8% 13.9% 13.7%


V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆xpansion vs. V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio

V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio is one of the most widely used and important measures of stock valuation. V8彩票注册登陆f we value stocks based on their V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratios, investment returns come from two factors. V8彩票注册登陆he first is the growth of earnings from the growth of business, the second is V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion.

V8彩票注册登陆he chart below shows V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion vs. V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratios of the stocks on V8彩票注册登陆an. 1, 1998. V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion is defined as the V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio on V8彩票注册登陆ug. 31, 2008 divided by that the V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio on V8彩票注册登陆an. 1, 1998, of companies. V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion ratio of 1 means no V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion. V8彩票注册登陆ased on the charts below, we can clearly see that there is a statistical correlation between V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion and V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio itself. V8彩票注册登陆f a stock had a V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio of less than 10 in 1998, it has much higher chance of getting V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion over the holding period. V8彩票注册登陆y contract, if a stock had a higher V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, e.g. higher than 25, the chance of V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion is much smaller. V8彩票注册登陆f the V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 is higher than 30, V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion is almost impossible.

V8彩票注册登陆his chart also tells us that what we all already know: if everything else is the same, a stock with lower V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio has better potential gains. V8彩票注册登陆f a stock is bought at a high V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio, the potential return is smaller.

V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆oles of V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluation

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆n order to analyze the roles of market valuations on investment returns, we divided the 2403 stocks under study into three groups: under-valued, fair-valued, and over-valued. V8彩票注册登陆e use a very simple indictor that we call V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 to value the stocks. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio over V8彩票注册登陆ast V8彩票注册登陆rowth, defined as V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio divided by average V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth rate over the past 5 years.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he reason we used V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 instead of V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 to measure the valuation of business is because V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio fails to take into account the “growth” part of the business. V8彩票注册登陆idely used valuation ratios such as V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆, earning yield or discount cash flow model all have their pros and cons. V8彩票注册登陆his will be discussed in detail in another article

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆or the current discussion, if V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 of a stock is between 0 and 1, we consider it under-valued; if it is between 1 and 2, we consider it fair-valued; if V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is higher than 2, it is considered over-valued. V8彩票注册登陆his is a very rough measure of stock valuation, however, as we can see later, it makes a big difference on the investment returns.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆ith the simple valuation ratio of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 as the indication of stock valuations, the returns of different valuation groups are complete different, as show in the following table:

V8彩票注册登陆op 100 V8彩票注册登陆ost V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ompanies

V8彩票注册登陆econd 100 V8彩票注册登陆ost V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ompanies







V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆umber of stocks







V8彩票注册登陆# of V8彩票注册登陆osers








V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆verage gain








V8彩票注册登陆edian gain







V8彩票注册登陆e can see that for the top 100 most predictable companies, there were 25 under-valued stocks in V8彩票注册登陆an. 1998. V8彩票注册登陆his group of stocks gained about 20% annually if held for 10 years and 8 months. V8彩票注册登陆he fair-valued group has an annualized median gain of 12.1%, even the over-valued group has an annualized median gain of 9.5%. V8彩票注册登陆or the second 100 most predictable companies, the gain is lower, as expected. V8彩票注册登陆he undervalued group has an annualized median gain of 13.8%. V8彩票注册登陆he over-valued group has 7.6%. V8彩票注册登陆ll these numbers are much higher than the 3.1% of the annualized median gain of all 2403 stocks. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 gained 2.7% annually over the same period.

V8彩票注册登陆urthermore, we like to point out that the probability of loss on any of the stocks is reduced if one buys undervalued stocks with highly predictable underlying businessV8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆or the undervalued stocks in both groups, the probability of losing on any the stocks is reduced to 4% or less if one holds if for 10 years. V8彩票注册登陆his is in strong contrast of the 37% of stocks that are in loss among all 2403 stocks studied, and 45% among the stocks whose business are unpredictable according to our definition.

V8彩票注册登陆hat does this tell us? V8彩票注册登陆t again tells us nothing new. V8彩票注册登陆t just reaffirms that the safest way to invest is to buy undervalued stocks with highly predictable underlying business. V8彩票注册登陆y doing that you will avoid most of the losses (V8彩票注册登陆ule #1: V8彩票注册登陆ever V8彩票注册登陆ost V8彩票注册登陆oney), and in the meantime, you achieve the highest returns.

V8彩票注册登陆ack V8彩票注册登陆esting of 2005-2008

V8彩票注册登陆o far we have been using the financial data of V8彩票注册登陆an. 1998 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. 2008 to back test the stock performances over the same period. V8彩票注册登陆owever, financial information is not known until the period has passed. V8彩票注册登陆n order to further test the idea, as the second step of the back test, we only used the financial information that had become available before the beginning of the period that the stock performances are tested.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆herefore, for the performances of stocks in 2005, we only use the financial data that is available before V8彩票注册登陆ec. 2004. V8彩票注册登陆e use the same algorithm to rank the predictability of business, and observe the stock performances of a portfolio equally invested in the top 25 most undervalued stocks among the top 100 most predictable companies. V8彩票注册登陆he portfolio is rebalanced after 12 months. V8彩票注册登陆hen for 2006 stock performances, we use the financial information before V8彩票注册登陆ec. 2005 to determine the predictability of business, and invest in the top 25 most undervalued ones among the top 100 most predictable companies, and so on. V8彩票注册登陆e back tested for the period from V8彩票注册登陆an. 2005 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. 2008. V8彩票注册登陆he results are shown below.

  2005 2006 2007 2008 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. V8彩票注册登陆umulative
V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 3.8% 12.3% 4.4% -10.1% 9.4%
V8彩票注册登陆op 25 V8彩票注册登陆anked 36.8% 13.6% 18.2% 2.3% 87.9%


V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s we can see, for the 3-year and 8-month period, the portfolio of the top 25 undervalued predictable companies beat the V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 by great margins except for 2006, when it almost matched V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500. V8彩票注册登陆ver the 3-year and 8-month period, the portfolio had a cumulative gain of 87.9%, while V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 just gained only 9.4%. (V8彩票注册登陆ll the numbers do not include dividends).

V8彩票注册登陆ompetitiveness of V8彩票注册登陆usiness

V8彩票注册登陆o far we have not discussed the “moat” V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett talked about in the business he likes. V8彩票注册登陆ow do you measure moat? V8彩票注册登陆f a business has no moat, over time others will get into the same business, the business cannot maintain its competitive advantages and has to lower prices of its products and services, and the business profit margin will shrink. V8彩票注册登陆herefore if a company can maintain or expand its profit margin while growing its business without incurring excess debt, we will consider the business has moat.

V8彩票注册登陆usiness moat can be from the nature of the business and business operations. V8彩票注册登陆f a business can maintain or even expand its profit margin while growing, it must have something that may not necessarily be understood by others.


V8彩票注册登陆n interesting comparison here is two companies that are in almost identical business: V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) and V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆f we look at the gross margins of the two companies, as shown in the charts below, V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy has a gross margin at a consistent level around 5.4%, while V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity’s gross margin has been in steady decline, and entered in negative territory last year. V8彩票注册登陆pparently, without studying the business operations of the two companies, we can safely say that V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy has a moat that V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity does not.

V8彩票注册登陆ot surprisingly, during the past 10 years, V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy rewarded its investors with a 600% gain, while V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity is one of the companies with which you are still in loss even if you bought it 10 years ago hold it until today. V8彩票注册登陆y the way, V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy has a 4.5-star V8彩票注册登陆usiness V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank, while V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity is 1-star (unpredictable) by our definition.

V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆nvesting vs. V8彩票注册登陆igar-V8彩票注册登陆utt V8彩票注册登陆nvesting

V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett has famously said: “V8彩票注册登陆 would rather invest in good companies at fair prices than invest fair companies at good prices.” V8彩票注册登陆t was said that V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett’s investing philosophy was influenced by V8彩票注册登陆harlie V8彩票注册登陆unger. V8彩票注册登陆efore he met V8彩票注册登陆harlie V8彩票注册登陆unger, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆 liked more to invest in fair companies at good prices, i.e. cigar-butt investing.

V8彩票注册登陆f one has to decide between V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity and V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy, a cigar-butt type of investor may as well consider V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity. V8彩票注册登陆hy? V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity is sold below its liquidity value on its balance sheet. V8彩票注册登陆ven if V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity is liquidated, at $0.41 a share the cigar-butt investor seems not at the position of losing money. V8彩票注册登陆owever, for a long term V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger investor, V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy is certainly a better choice because it is much better run, it can consistently grow its business without compromising its profit margin, and it has little debt. V8彩票注册登陆he business has grown its earnings at about 18% a year over the past 10 years, and it is sold at a V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio of just 9. V8彩票注册登陆f course, with V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy you won’t get the bargain prices that you get with V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity.

V8彩票注册登陆harlie V8彩票注册登陆unger once said: “V8彩票注册登陆f you buy something because it's undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. V8彩票注册登陆hat's hard. V8彩票注册登陆ut if you buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your $%@. V8彩票注册登陆hat's a good thing. V8彩票注册登陆e want to buy stocks to hold forever.”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆herefore, V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger type of investors will first look at the quality of the business. V8彩票注册登陆hey only invest in good companies that can grow its business consistently and maintain its price power (profit margin) without incurring excess debt.

V8彩票注册登陆ne mistake that value investors often make is falling into value traps. V8彩票注册登陆 value trap is a company that seems to be sold at discount, but its business is in the process deterioration. V8彩票注册登陆f a value investor pays too much attention to the business valuation (quantity), and overlooks the quality of the business, he/she may well fall into value traps. V8彩票注册登陆s our study shows, investing in a low quality has a much higher chance of the permanent loss of capital. V8彩票注册登陆nvesting in a high quality business at over-valued prices will reduce investment returns, but over time the growth of the business will compensate the high prices investors paid, and the chance for permanent loss of capital is small.

V8彩票注册登陆y investing in highly predictable and competitive businesses, a V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger investor can avoid value traps.

V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆rom the above discussions we have developed a screener that we call V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener. V8彩票注册登陆he stocks that can make into this screener are:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆ompanies that have high V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank, that is, companies that can consistently grow its revenue and earnings.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆ompanies that have competitive advantages. V8彩票注册登陆t can maintain or even expand its profit margin while growing its business
  3. V8彩票注册登陆ompanies that incur little debt while growing business
  4. V8彩票注册登陆ompanies that are fair valued or under-valued. V8彩票注册登陆e use V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 as indicator. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is the V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 ratio divided by the average growth rate of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 over the past 5 years.

V8彩票注册登陆he screener is here; it is for V8彩票注册登陆remium V8彩票注册登陆embers only. V8彩票注册登陆f you are not a V8彩票注册登陆remium V8彩票注册登陆ember, we invite you for a 7-day <V8彩票注册登陆 class=articletitle href="/membership/membership_upgrade.php">V8彩票注册登陆ree V8彩票注册登陆rial.

V8彩票注册登陆ow to make 20% a year?

V8彩票注册登陆e did another back test of the top 25 stocks generated from V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener for the period from V8彩票注册登陆an. 2005 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. 2008. V8彩票注册登陆imilar to the test of undervalued stocks, the 25 stocks for 2005 were generated from the financial data before V8彩票注册登陆ec. 2004, and those for 2006 were generated from data before V8彩票注册登陆ec. 2005, and so on. V8彩票注册登陆he results are shown below.

  2005 2006 2007 2008 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. V8彩票注册登陆umulative
V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 3.8% 12.3% 4.4% -10.1% 9.4%
V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener 43.4% 11.2% 17.2% 7.2% 100.3%


V8彩票注册登陆imilar to the test with undervalued stocks, the V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener greatly outperformed the market, although it did not beat the V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 every year. V8彩票注册登陆he cumulative gain for the 3 years and 8 months period is 100.8%, making it 21% annualized, without counting dividends.

V8彩票注册登陆s V8彩票注册登陆his a V8彩票注册登陆agic V8彩票注册登陆ormula?

V8彩票注册登陆ou may call this a magic formula, as V8彩票注册登陆oel V8彩票注册登陆reenblatt calls the study in his book “V8彩票注册登陆he little book that beat the market”. V8彩票注册登陆he difference is that the V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener has much stronger requirements on the quality of businesses. V8彩票注册登陆he quality of business is measured by the long term growth of the business. V8彩票注册登陆he business must be able to stand the test of good times and bad times. V8彩票注册登陆he business must have “predictable and proven” earnings even in distressed economic times; it must have competitive advantages that cannot be easily taken by others, and may not incur debt in the course of growth.

V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener will only select high quality companies. V8彩票注册登陆fter that, the stock valuation is checked. V8彩票注册登陆ere the growth rate of the business is taken into account using V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 ratio, instead of the earning yield used by V8彩票注册登陆oel V8彩票注册登陆reenblattV8彩票注册登陆, as earning yield does not take into account the growth of the business.

V8彩票注册登陆oel V8彩票注册登陆reenblatt said that with his V8彩票注册登陆agic V8彩票注册登陆ormula investors may have losses sometimes for two to three consecutive years, as witnessed by the large loss of magic formula portfolios in 2007 and 2008, right after the magic formula was published. V8彩票注册登陆he back test of portfolios generated by V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener beat the V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 by great margins over the same period.


V8彩票注册登陆ust as V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett has said multiple times, buying companies with “predictable and proven” earnings can be very profitable in stock market investing. V8彩票注册登陆nvestors are rewarded with consistent business growth. V8彩票注册登陆ermanent loss of capital can also be largely avoided.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆uying undervalued predictable companies is even better, as shown in V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 of the study. V8彩票注册登陆his strategy can greatly outperform the market averages. V8彩票注册登陆ack testing shows that a gain of 20% annualized can be achieved while the market is gaining only 3% a year.

V8彩票注册登陆rom this study we have developed a concept called V8彩票注册登陆usiness V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank (V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆e also develop a screening tool called “V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener”, which can be used to screen companies with high quality business at undervalued or fair-valued prices.

V8彩票注册登陆lso see: <V8彩票注册登陆 class=nav href="/news.php?id=36158">V8彩票注册登陆hat worked in the market from 1998-2008? V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank

V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener;

V8彩票注册登陆ake a <V8彩票注册登陆 class=articletitle href="/membership/membership_upgrade.php">V8彩票注册登陆ree V8彩票注册登陆rialV8彩票注册登陆 of V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus V8彩票注册登陆remium V8彩票注册登陆embership.

  • V8彩票注册登陆urrently 3.09/5
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V8彩票注册登陆ating: 3.1V8彩票注册登陆/5 (150 votes)



V8彩票注册登陆onwu - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
interesting from the fundamental view point. V8彩票注册登陆hy pick 10-years frame though. V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆redictor can do technical backtesting.
V8彩票注册登陆iglebot - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ice article.

V8彩票注册登陆his is a correlation model that returns the lowest probability of losing money and the highest probability of making 15% returns from 2005 to present using trailing data from 1998. V8彩票注册登陆he 1998 to 2008 study was flawed from what V8彩票注册登陆akerkn said. V8彩票注册登陆nalysis of the variables before the period in question is a must.

V8彩票注册登陆ts a good model if things remain the same. V8彩票注册登陆ut 1995 to 2008 have been a super bubble. V8彩票注册登陆o collect data from the ramp of a hockey stick chart and assume things are predictable from that data is a little scary.

V8彩票注册登陆 know the model works from business fundamentals, but V8彩票注册登陆 would like to test it from 1959 to present.

V8彩票注册登陆ersonally V8彩票注册登陆 think it works, but are the 5 star companies a bargain today?
V8彩票注册登陆ozer - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆 few questions regarding methodology. V8彩票注册登陆ow often is the model rebalanced (portfolio turnover)? V8彩票注册登陆n related question, any rules as to taking profits or cutting losses?

V8彩票注册登陆he back-tested models are interesting, but its the execution of the model that will make a difference.
V8彩票注册登陆ozer - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆lso, could you define how you quantified your predictability rank.

V8彩票注册登陆hanks very much.
V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆usiness predictability based on the consistency of both revenue and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆he combination of revenue of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is used. V8彩票注册登陆he more smooth the revenue and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 grow, the higher predictability rank the business is.

V8彩票注册登陆ometimes revenue can grow smoothly, but V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is not. V8彩票注册登陆or an example: V8彩票注册登陆ale V8彩票注册登陆orp.

V8彩票注册登陆ax7777 - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆 respect the effort of V8彩票注册登陆urufocus on V8彩票注册登陆redictability and V8彩票注册登陆 visit this site everyday as it is truly a great site full of relevant information, this predictability could be a great addition but V8彩票注册登陆 need a lot more data if we are to take this information seriously. V8彩票注册登陆 think you can find a 3 year time period that would correlate to market returns for almost anything, even tire size on my kid's bicycle has a longer correlation to the market than 2005 to 2008. V8彩票注册登陆sing only 2005 to 2008 for back-testing is not serious, we need at least 50 years or even 70 years to take this study seriously.
V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆e call the back testing from 1998-2008 "what worked", the effort was trying to find out "what worked". V8彩票注册登陆s we said, we did not find anything new, what we found is we already know, i.e. buying good companies at fair prices.

V8彩票注册登陆he number is really not three years, since the predictability for 2005 was based on the business performances of 1997-2004, and so on.

it is very hard to do a 50 year backtesting, we do not have the financial data earlier than 1997. V8彩票注册登陆lso the number of stocks that survived 50 years would be very small.
V8彩票注册登陆adhusudanvr - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆f one had tried to identify "predictable businesses" i am not quite sure what they might end up with. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆 felt was in a predictable business 10 years ago(insurance!!). V8彩票注册登陆ou might not find data for these companies when the screen is run from 2005 to 2015. V8彩票注册登陆nd this will certainly be the key, as while finding stocks for investment, we might end up with an V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 that will soon go bankrupt.

V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆t is true V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 business was quite predictable before. V8彩票注册登陆ut the V8彩票注册登陆uffet-V8彩票注册登陆unger screener also look at the profit margin of the business. V8彩票注册登陆he profit margin of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 has been in declining as shown in this chart:

<V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 src="彩票注册登陆xmlswf%2V8彩票注册登陆financial_chart.php%3V8彩票注册登陆symbol%3V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆%26series%5V8彩票注册登陆%5V8彩票注册登陆%3V8彩票注册登陆netmargin%26trendline%5V8彩票注册登陆%5V8彩票注册登陆%3V8彩票注册登陆1%261225370024808%261225370035731" quality="high" bgcolor=#000000 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆=400 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆=220 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆="charts" allowV8彩票注册登陆criptV8彩票注册登陆ccess="sameV8彩票注册登陆omain" swV8彩票注册登陆iveV8彩票注册登陆onnect="true" V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆="application/x-shockwave-flash" V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆="">
V8彩票注册登陆aveheatin - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆 think the methodology is valid and the concept of finding company with great business fundamental at a bargain price is best investment startegy, and no body would argue againt it. V8彩票注册登陆he difficulty leis in identifying comapies with great business fundamental in the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 (not the past). V8彩票注册登陆ata will never tell you if a business has great fundamental in the future. V8彩票注册登陆f you look at V8彩票注册登陆uffett's great purchases, most of them were bought at a time it looked terrible, but somehow V8彩票注册登陆uffett was able to see the potential in V8彩票注册登陆uture. V8彩票注册登陆hen V8彩票注册登陆uffett bought V8彩票注册登陆eico, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, few saw the point. V8彩票注册登陆nd now he bought V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, and invested in V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, and again we could not comprehend why he did in such an agreesive fashion. V8彩票注册登陆he difference is we cannot see the 'V8彩票注册登陆uture' and he can.

V8彩票注册登陆e has already pointed the way for us and we could esily follow, but few did.
V8彩票注册登陆eiwentg - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆 like the concept. V8彩票注册登陆owever, V8彩票注册登陆 think free cash flow is a better guide. V8彩票注册登陆t's less easily distorted than earnings.

V8彩票注册登陆 was pretty surprised to see V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 at 4.5 stars. V8彩票注册登陆 was also surprised to see 3V8彩票注册登陆 and V8彩票注册登陆merican V8彩票注册登陆xpress at one star, V8彩票注册登陆oke at 2 and V8彩票注册登陆epsi at 2.5. V8彩票注册登陆 believe all these are stable, predictable businesses. V8彩票注册登陆arren owns loads of V8彩票注册登陆oke and V8彩票注册登陆mex.

V8彩票注册登陆ou might also want to adjust for currency effects. V8彩票注册登陆ovartis and V8彩票注册登陆anofi-V8彩票注册登陆ventis are one star. V8彩票注册登陆 especially like V8彩票注册登陆ovartis, and V8彩票注册登陆 know V8彩票注册登陆arren owns V8彩票注册登陆anofi.
V8彩票注册登陆tephanus - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ood work. V8彩票注册登陆ould love to see the return comparison between the V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆 500 and the V8彩票注册登陆uffet-V8彩票注册登陆unger screener updated for the full 2008 calendar year.
V8彩票注册登陆srddi - 10 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆he equities markets seem to becoming unmoored from economic reality. V8彩票注册登陆ow could “the failure of either V8彩票注册登陆hrysler or V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 could be other than negative for the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 dollar”?

V8彩票注册登陆onclusion: “V8彩票注册登陆he people who write about these things must think in terms of ‘hour to hour,’ may not know who V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett is, and certainly don’t understand his investment philosophy.”

V8彩票注册登陆ckymtns - 9 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆 don't think V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 should be used for predictability as V8彩票注册登陆uffett and V8彩票注册登陆unger speak lowly of ebitda.
V8彩票注册登陆uixote1 - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆hy you removed this article from your site?

V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 8 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆t is there now. V8彩票注册登陆aused by a recent change. V8彩票注册登陆orry about it.
V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆trader - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ery good article!!, both part V8彩票注册登陆 and part V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆 hope V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 continues publishing such interesting and formative articles.
V8彩票注册登陆iojohn - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆eally enjoyed your article. V8彩票注册登陆ould like to get some clarifications though.

V8彩票注册登陆n your discussion regarding the competitiveness of the business, you state that "if a company can maintain or expand its profit margin while growing its business without incurring excess debt, we will consider the business has moat". V8彩票注册登陆ow would you define profit margin? V8彩票注册登陆n your V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy/V8彩票注册登陆ircuit V8彩票注册登陆ity comparison you use gross margins to identify competitiveness. V8彩票注册登陆n the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 example, you use net margin. V8彩票注册登陆n the moat component of your screen, do you use either or both metrics in your screen? V8彩票注册登陆lso, how do you define business growth for measuring competitiveness (V8彩票注册登陆evenue growth, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth, book value growth)? V8彩票注册登陆inally, when you mention excess debt, how do you define that? V8彩票注册登陆s it incremental debt relative to some previous point in time or is it excess debt relative to some industry average or are you targeting some V8彩票注册登陆ebt/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 ratio, etc?

V8彩票注册登陆inally, is there a reason why you chose V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 (V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 vs. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆rowth) instead of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 vs. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth for your valuation metric? V8彩票注册登陆t seems like the latter would be internally consistent. V8彩票注册登陆ould the output be very similar using either metric?


V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 8 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆hank you for your comment, V8彩票注册登陆iojohn!

V8彩票注册登陆sually gross margin works well for non-financial companies. V8彩票注册登陆or financials, the accounting is usually complex. V8彩票注册登陆e use net-margin there for V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆ut you should look at both.

V8彩票注册登陆e define growth as both revenue growth and earnings growth.

V8彩票注册登陆or debt, we usually look at the debt to revenue ratio. V8彩票注册登陆e hope that it is not increasing constantly.

V8彩票注册登陆 think you can look at V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 vs. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth. V8彩票注册登陆or predictable companies, the results should be similar.

V8彩票注册登陆rclark - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆hat software does gurufocus use to search through these stocks?

V8彩票注册登陆tephen V8彩票注册登陆eumeier - 7 years ago

V8彩票注册登陆as internet retailing changed V8彩票注册登陆est V8彩票注册登陆uy's predictability?
V8彩票注册登陆eticolas - 7 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ou said earlier; "_ it is very hard to do a 50 year backtesting, we do not have the financial data earlier than 1997. V8彩票注册登陆lso the number of stocks that survived 50 years would be very small."

V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 & V8彩票注册登陆ompustat data go back farther than that. V8彩票注册登陆t would offer many many opportunities to test the three year, five year, etc performance of the model.
V8彩票注册登陆przechodzki - 4 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆lease comment how V8彩票注册登陆aren the famous V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 can generate so much money per year from selling naked calls and puts on the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 or V8彩票注册登陆utures

V8彩票注册登陆przechodzki - 4 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆 would love to see V8彩票注册登陆aren's moves in real time if that would be possible and trade along her side any time

V8彩票注册登陆enorunagamoto - 3 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 trust-worthy owners cum magement of businesses in V8彩票注册登陆hailand should count more than predictability and profitability calculation. V8彩票注册登陆 am sick and tired of children-cry-wolf-coming type of management in V8彩票注册登陆hailand.. V8彩票注册登陆ll dressed up to look good.. V8彩票注册登陆nd a good V8彩票注册登陆pple may be rotten in the core(merchants of V8彩票注册登陆enice). 委委蛇蛇之人不可交往。นิสัยคนขี้โกงมันดัดยาก

V8彩票注册登陆rurban - 2 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆hy are we still seeing this article. V8彩票注册登陆he data is completely invalid. V8彩票注册登陆t uses 1998-2008 financial data to determine 1998 predictability scores. V8彩票注册登陆ome on! V8彩票注册登陆ither redo the study using 1988-1998 financial data or delete this article altogether.

V8彩票注册登陆ciV8彩票注册登陆eep - 2 years ago

V8彩票注册登陆he distribution data (charts) and data in these old 'V8彩票注册登陆redictability' reports, such as V8彩票注册登陆ain V8彩票注册登陆istribution and V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 expansion, should be available (and posted) every quarter (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 data) as the 'V8彩票注册登陆redictability' scores for stocks appear to be updated on that frequency. V8彩票注册登陆he changes in statistics between 1998-2008 (value oriented market) and 2008-2018 (growth oriented market) would be insightful. V8彩票注册登陆 suspect the next market correction will bring on a backlash to value orientation.

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