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V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus V8彩票注册登陆esearch: V8彩票注册登陆hat worked in the market from 1998-2008? V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆ntroduction of V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank

V8彩票注册登陆eptember 30, 2008
V8彩票注册登陆ith the stock market in turmoil, even a lot of our V8彩票注册登陆urus have suffered great losses. V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus recently conducted a back test study of V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett’s strategy of “buying good companies at fair prices” for the years from 1998-2008. V8彩票注册登陆his is the first of a series of reports on the study results.

V8彩票注册登陆ince V8彩票注册登陆ct. 2007, the financial market has been hit by a crisis to a degree unmet in many decades. V8彩票注册登陆trategies that worked for many years see their first “black swan”, and many of our gurus have also suffered permanent losses of capital. V8彩票注册登陆hings that worked for many years just stopped working. V8彩票注册登陆t the time of this writing, V8彩票注册登陆ehman V8彩票注册登陆rothers filed bankruptcy and V8彩票注册登陆errill V8彩票注册登陆ynch was sold to V8彩票注册登陆ank of V8彩票注册登陆merica in a fire sale. V8彩票注册登陆 week ago, V8彩票注册登陆annie V8彩票注册登陆ae and V8彩票注册登陆reddie V8彩票注册登陆ac were taken over by the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. government. V8彩票注册登陆ith the bear market in full swing, all these things are now happening on weekends.

V8彩票注册登陆t the time of crisis and uncertainty, any defects in your investing strategies that have been hidden for years have surfaced. V8彩票注册登陆f a strategy can pass V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett’s V8彩票注册登陆ule #1 test in the recent market , it’s probably more robust than most others.

V8彩票注册登陆ith this in mind, we did a back testing for the performances of V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett strategy from 1998 to 2008. V8彩票注册登陆e recently introduced a new feature:10-year financials, and this data has been used for our back testing.

V8彩票注册登陆his is the V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆 of the study. V8彩票注册登陆lso

V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆hat worked in the market from 1998-2008? V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆ole of V8彩票注册登陆aluations
V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆ntrinsic V8彩票注册登陆alue, V8彩票注册登陆iscounted V8彩票注册登陆ash V8彩票注册登陆low and V8彩票注册登陆argin of V8彩票注册登陆afety

V8彩票注册登陆he performances from 1999 to present are monitored with real portfolios. V8彩票注册登陆here are V8彩票注册登陆 http://xtrmy.icu/stock_ideas.php

V8彩票注册登陆o what is V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett strategy?


V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett said many times that the companies he likes are:


1. V8彩票注册登陆imple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

V8彩票注册登陆t is hard to quantify “simple businesses that he (V8彩票注册登陆uffett) understands”, so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. V8彩票注册登陆s we will later show, the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

V8彩票注册登陆redictability of V8彩票注册登陆usinesses


V8彩票注册登陆n our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from V8彩票注册登陆an. 2, 1998 to V8彩票注册登陆ug. 31, 2008. V8彩票注册登陆e have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. V8彩票注册登陆e rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

V8彩票注册登陆e use 10-year financial data because we think that 10 years is enough to cover a full cycle for most businesses. 10 years should also be enough for the business value to be reflected on the stock prices. V8彩票注册登陆he recent financial crisis is perfect for this study because it makes the business cycle more complete.

V8彩票注册登陆ig. 1 shows the revenue per share, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 per shares of V8彩票注册登陆algreen (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆), V8彩票注册登陆ells V8彩票注册登陆argo V8彩票注册登陆ank (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆), V8彩票注册登陆pple V8彩票注册登陆omputers (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆), and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆orp. (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆hen comparing the revenue and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 performances of the predictabilities of their business becomes quite apparent.






V8彩票注册登陆s we can clearly see, V8彩票注册登陆algreen has far better business predictability than V8彩票注册登陆ells V8彩票注册登陆argo, which has much better business predictability when compared to V8彩票注册登陆pple V8彩票注册登陆omputers (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆orp (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆e ranked the predictability of the 2403 companies. V8彩票注册登陆ny companies that ever had operating loss in any fiscal year during the past 10 years are considered unpredictable. V8彩票注册登陆herefore, among the four companies mentioned above, V8彩票注册登陆pple V8彩票注册登陆omputers and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆orp are unpredictable.

V8彩票注册登陆mong the 2403 companies, there were only 570 that are predictable according to our definition. V8彩票注册登陆s we will show below, these companies had much better stock performance than the others, and more importantly, the chance of losing money when investing in these is much smaller.

V8彩票注册登陆tudy V8彩票注册登陆ssumptions and V8彩票注册登陆iases


V8彩票注册登陆 few things to clarify before we report the correlation between the business predictability and the investment returns. V8彩票注册登陆ur study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
  • V8彩票注册登陆ividend yields are not counted for investment returns
  • V8彩票注册登陆ffects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
  • V8彩票注册登陆tudy is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆, etc.

V8彩票注册登陆ividends are certainly an important part of investment returns. V8彩票注册登陆owever, in this study we ignore the dividend returns. V8彩票注册登陆his will reduce the investment returns by at about 2% a year on average. V8彩票注册登陆ince predictable companies tend to pay higher dividends and pay them more regularly, this bias favors the average return of non-predictable companies.

V8彩票注册登陆e ignore the price adjustment due to spin-offs during the past 10-year for these 2403 companies. V8彩票注册登陆lthough we do not have the accurate number,we believe the error caused by this factor is small.

V8彩票注册登陆urvivorship bias is another important factor in this study. V8彩票注册登陆n 1998 there were certainly much more than 2403 stocks traded in the exchanges. V8彩票注册登陆owever, only about 2403 survived until the present day. 1998 was a year of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 and dotcom bubble; many of those stocks were later de-listed. V8彩票注册登陆e believe that survivorship bias strongly favors non-predictable companies because they tend to lose more money and become insolvent.

V8彩票注册登陆he correlation between business predictability and investment returns
  V8彩票注册登陆redictables V8彩票注册登陆on-V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ll stocks
V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆umber of stocks 570 1833 2403
V8彩票注册登陆otal lost money 61 830 891
V8彩票注册登陆otal lost more than 50% 18 412 430
V8彩票注册登陆otal lost more than 90% 4 86 90
V8彩票注册登陆verage gain 260.6% 100.0% 138.1%
V8彩票注册登陆edian gain 150.0% 13.0% 39.0%
V8彩票注册登陆aximum V8彩票注册登陆ain 2852.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
V8彩票注册登陆aximum V8彩票注册登陆oss -100.0% -100.0% -100.0%
V8彩票注册登陆nnualized V8彩票注册登陆verage gain 12.7% 6.7% 8.4%
V8彩票注册登陆nnualized V8彩票注册登陆edian gain 8.9% 1.1% 3.1%

V8彩票注册登陆he correlation between the business predictability and investment return of a company is shown in V8彩票注册登陆able 1. V8彩票注册登陆he table header “V8彩票注册登陆op 100” means the top 100 ranked predictable companies. “V8彩票注册登陆econd 100” means the next 100 top ranked predictable companies, and so on. “V8彩票注册登陆on-predictable” means that the company had at least one loss year during the past 10 years, so the business is non-predictable to us.

V8彩票注册登陆ll 2403 stocks:


V8彩票注册登陆s shown in the last column of the table, among the 2403 stocks studied, 891 of them, or about 37% are still losing money after a 10-year and 8-month holding period. V8彩票注册登陆bout half of these stocks lost more than 50%, and 90 of them lost more than 90%. V8彩票注册登陆herefore, we can conclude that the, “buy and hold” strategy does not work if you buy bad companies.

V8彩票注册登陆he 2403 stocks show an average gain of 138% over the 10-year and 8-month period and a median gain of 39%. V8彩票注册登陆n annualized terms, these stocks had an annualized average gain of 8.4%, and an annualized median gain of 3.1%. V8彩票注册登陆uring the same period V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 had annualized average gain of 2.7%. V8彩票注册登陆ll numbers do not include dividends.

V8彩票注册登陆he average annualized gain of 8.4% of these 2403 stocks is much higher than the 2.7% of V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500. V8彩票注册登陆his can be caused by the non-weighted average of these stocks. V8彩票注册登陆lso, the survivorship bias mentioned above can have a large contribution to the excess gain. V8彩票注册登陆ince in 1998, a lot dotcoms disappeared, even large companies such as V8彩票注册登陆nron or V8彩票注册登陆orldV8彩票注册登陆om were de-listed. V8彩票注册登陆f all these de-listed and bankrupt companies were counted in our research, the average and median gain would be greatly reduced.

V8彩票注册登陆he median gain of 3.1% here is close to the annualized average gain of V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 during this period. V8彩票注册登陆e will use this number as a reference for the returns of each group.

V8彩票注册登陆he largest gainer for the companies was V8彩票注册登陆ansen V8彩票注册登陆atural V8彩票注册登陆orp. (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆t gained more than 114 times during the period. V8彩票注册登陆ansen is engaged in the business of marketing, selling and distributing so-called ”alternative“ beverage category such as natural sodas, fruit juices and juice cocktails. V8彩票注册登陆he top 10 gainers during the 10 years are shown in V8彩票注册登陆able 2:

 

V8彩票注册登陆ll V8彩票注册登陆on-V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ompanies


V8彩票注册登陆here are 1833 non-predictable companies, and every one of them had at least one year of operating loss. V8彩票注册登陆s shown in V8彩票注册登陆able 1, the annualized average gain of these stocks is 6.7%, and the annualized median gain is 1.1%. V8彩票注册登陆ll these are lower than the averages of the 2403 stocks. V8彩票注册登陆mong all the 1833 non-predictable companies, 830, or 45% of them are still in loss after a holding period of 10 years and 8 months. V8彩票注册登陆bout 50% of them lost more than 50%, and 10% of them lost more than 90%.

V8彩票注册登陆ll V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ompanies


V8彩票注册登陆here are 570 predictable companies. V8彩票注册登陆he annualized average gain of these stocks shows a much higher 12.7% when compared to the non-predictable companies, and the annualized median gain is 8.9%. V8彩票注册登陆hese numbers are better than the average of all stocks by more than 6% a year.

V8彩票注册登陆he possibility of loss is also dramatically lower among the predictable companies. V8彩票注册登陆mong the 570 predictable companies, 11% are in loss with the 10-year and 8-month holding period, which is much smaller than the average of 37% for the non-predictable companies. V8彩票注册登陆redictable companies that lost more than 50% are reduced to 30% of those losers.

V8彩票注册登陆ntroduction of V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank


V8彩票注册登陆or the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. V8彩票注册登陆ccordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank 5-V8彩票注册登陆tar 4.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar 4-V8彩票注册登陆tar 3.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar 3-V8彩票注册登陆tar 2.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar 2-V8彩票注册登陆tar 1-V8彩票注册登陆tar (non-predictable) V8彩票注册登陆verage among all
% out of all 2403 stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
V8彩票注册登陆verage gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
V8彩票注册登陆edian gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
V8彩票注册登陆aximum V8彩票注册登陆ainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
V8彩票注册登陆ax V8彩票注册登陆oser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
V8彩票注册登陆nnualized V8彩票注册登陆verage V8彩票注册登陆ain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
V8彩票注册登陆nnualized V8彩票注册登陆edian V8彩票注册登陆ain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%


5-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability has a typical business performance chart like that of V8彩票注册登陆algreen's:




V8彩票注册登陆nly 3.3% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 5-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, only 3% of the 5-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain was 12.1%, which is 9% a year above the average of all stocks.

4.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability: V8彩票注册登陆nly 2.9% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 4.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 10% of the 4.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 10.6%, which was 7.5% a year above the average of all stocks.

4-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability has a typical business performance chart like this.


4-star
 

V8彩票注册登陆nly 3.7% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 4-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 8% of the 4-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 9.8%, which was 6.7% a year above the average of all stocks.

3.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability: V8彩票注册登陆nly 3.3% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 3.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 9% of the 3.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 9.3%, which was 6.2% a year above the average of all stocks.

3-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability has a typical business performance chart like this.


3-star
 

V8彩票注册登陆nly 3.3% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 3-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 11% of the 3-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 8.2%, which was 5.1% a year above the average of all stocks.

2.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability: V8彩票注册登陆nly 3.3% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 2.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 18% of the 2.5-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 7.3%, which was 5.2% a year above the average of all stocks.

2-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability has a typical business performance chart like this.


2-star
 

V8彩票注册登陆nly 3.3% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 2-V8彩票注册登陆tar. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 16% of the 2-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 6%, which was 2.9% a year above the average of all stocks.

1-V8彩票注册登陆tar V8彩票注册登陆redictability


 

76.3% out of the 2403 stocks are ranked 1-V8彩票注册登陆tar, these companies are not predictable, they had at least one year of operating loss over the past 10 years. V8彩票注册登陆n the back testing for 1998-2008, 45% of the 1-V8彩票注册登陆tar stocks are still in loss. V8彩票注册登陆heir annualized median gain is 1.1%, which was 2% a year below the average of all stocks.

V8彩票注册登陆ot-V8彩票注册登陆anked: V8彩票注册登陆here are more than 10,000 stocks trading on the major exchanges. V8彩票注册登陆e only ranked 2403 of them; all others are not ranked. V8彩票注册登陆hey are not ranked mainly because most of them do not have more than 10 years of history, or we do not have 10-year financial data if they do.


V8彩票注册登陆he median gains and percentage of losers at different predictability ranks are shown in the charts below. V8彩票注册登陆e can clearly see that regardless of stock valuation, companies with higher V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank had much better stock performances. V8彩票注册登陆he possibility of losing money with long term holding period is smaller, too.






V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆atch


V8彩票注册登陆ll businesses have challenges. V8彩票注册登陆ompetitions, economic cycles and business execution may make businesses deviate from its previous tracks, and business predictability may change. V8彩票注册登陆n order to highlight this, we create a feature called V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆atch, which means that a predictable business shows sign of deviating from previous predictability. V8彩票注册登陆his deviation can be temporary; it can also be permanent.

V8彩票注册登陆he star-rating with a red frame shows that the company is on V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆atch.

V8彩票注册登陆e update the V8彩票注册登陆redictabilities of V8彩票注册登陆usiness quarterly, as companies report their financials once a quarter.

V8彩票注册登陆ow V8彩票注册登陆ot to V8彩票注册登陆ose V8彩票注册登陆oney?


V8彩票注册登陆ur study proves that, just as V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett said to us many times, by buying business with predictable and proven earnings you will have a much smaller chance of losing money.

V8彩票注册登陆o to http://xtrmy.icu/predictable.php for the current list of top-ranked V8彩票注册登陆redictable V8彩票注册登陆ompanies. V8彩票注册登陆his list is for V8彩票注册登陆remium V8彩票注册登陆embers only. V8彩票注册登陆f you are not a V8彩票注册登陆remium V8彩票注册登陆ember, you are invited for a V8彩票注册登陆ree V8彩票注册登陆rial.

V8彩票注册登陆hat is the next step?


V8彩票注册登陆o far we have not discussed the valuation and economic moat of the companies. V8彩票注册登陆n the following reports we will show our results regarding the roles of stock valuation and economic moat played in the past 10 years, as we discovered in the back testing study.

V8彩票注册登陆e also created a young V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆creener based on the 10-year back testing study and V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus’s understanding of V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett investing, which covers the aspects of business predictability, economic moat, and valuations. V8彩票注册登陆e did a back test on the performances of top 25 five stocks in young V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆creener for the periods from V8彩票注册登陆an. 2005-V8彩票注册登陆ug. 2008. V8彩票注册登陆e never had a losing year, and the results outperform the market by great margins. V8彩票注册登陆he results will be shown in the following report.

V8彩票注册登陆e opened a new menu item called “V8彩票注册登陆esearch & V8彩票注册登陆trategies”. V8彩票注册登陆he rank of business predictability is listed under this menu. V8彩票注册登陆he current V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆creener is also listed there. V8彩票注册登陆o to http://xtrmy.icu/predictable.php for the current list of top-ranked predictable companies.

V8彩票注册登陆ake a V8彩票注册登陆ree V8彩票注册登陆rial of V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus V8彩票注册登陆remium V8彩票注册登陆embership.

V8彩票注册登陆lso read:
V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆hat worked in the market from 1998-2008? V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆ole of V8彩票注册登陆aluations
V8彩票注册登陆art V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆: V8彩票注册登陆ntrinsic V8彩票注册登陆alue, V8彩票注册登陆iscounted V8彩票注册登陆ash V8彩票注册登陆low and V8彩票注册登陆argin of V8彩票注册登陆afety

V8彩票注册登陆he performances from 1999 to present are monitored with real portfolios. V8彩票注册登陆here are V8彩票注册登陆 http://xtrmy.icu/stock_ideas.php

 

V8彩票注册登陆bout the author:

gurufocus
V8彩票注册登陆harlie V8彩票注册登陆ian, V8彩票注册登陆h.V8彩票注册登陆., is the founder of V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus. V8彩票注册登陆ou can now order his book on V8彩票注册登陆mazon.

  • V8彩票注册登陆urrently 3.19/5
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V8彩票注册登陆ating: 3.2V8彩票注册登陆/5 (184 votes)

V8彩票注册登陆oters:

V8彩票注册登陆omments

V8彩票注册登陆ike shearin - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆 very good article. V8彩票注册登陆 would like to see the returns based on risk per dollar invested. V8彩票注册登陆f the risk is lower, the returns are usually lower as well. V8彩票注册登陆 do know that V8彩票注册登陆uffett's #1 goal is to not lose money and his #2 rule is to never forget rule #1. V8彩票注册登陆his seems to correlate accordingly.
V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆s we discussed, dividends are an very important part of investment returns. V8彩票注册登陆owever, not considering dividends does not change the conclusion that more predictable companies have best stock performances.

V8彩票注册登陆akerkn - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆our back testing is assuming time-travel is possible. V8彩票注册登陆ou are using the predictability over the last 10 years to decide what stocks to have bought 10 years ago.

10 years ago you would not have had the 1998 to 2008 information at hand. V8彩票注册登陆o for this study to have validity, you need to show that stocks chosen based on historic predictability data have outperformed.

V8彩票注册登陆or example, stocks chosen in 1998 based on 1988 to 1998 data. V8彩票注册登陆r, if you do not have data going back that far, stocks chosen in 2003 based in 1998 to 2002 data.
V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆hat you said is certainly valid, just as past performance is not a good indicator of future performance.

V8彩票注册登陆ut on the other hand, past V8彩票注册登陆nderperformance is a good indicator of future V8彩票注册登陆nderperformance. V8彩票注册登陆f a business did poorly at bad economic times before, the chances are it will do poorly again in future bad economic times.

V8彩票注册登陆usiness predictability is mainly determined by the nature of the business, less dependent on who runs it.

V8彩票注册登陆n order to further validate the idea, we used the data before V8彩票注册登陆an. 2005 to test the performances of stocks in 2005, and data before V8彩票注册登陆an. 2006 to test those for 2006, and so on. V8彩票注册登陆n this way, time does not travel back. V8彩票注册登陆he results will be reported in the next article. V8彩票注册登陆y the way, the results are similar.


V8彩票注册登陆jz27 - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆onder how this is compared with V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆's quality rank? V8彩票注册登陆id you do a study on this?
V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆o, we did not study the predictability of V8彩票注册登陆&V8彩票注册登陆500 companies. V8彩票注册登陆ut this is certainly an interesting idea, and we will put this as part of our study.

V8彩票注册登陆hanks!
V8彩票注册登陆ani - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
so???

what are the predictabil companies???

were can i get the list????
V8彩票注册登陆cedomaine1 - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆'all note that V8彩票注册登陆akerin is getting at the heart of the study which is probalistic based as it depends on averaging concepts and thus generalizing the data. V8彩票注册登陆he upshot is that this sort of analysis wouldn't be acceptable in V8彩票注册登陆inance 101 because it doesn't show all the data and is making an empirical inference that intuitively says thata glance at the data makes the whole matter obvious. V8彩票注册登陆f we had the actual data, the antithetical reply of the cautious sceptic would consist in pointing out the wide dispersion in the results and the relatively high value of some of the samples; as a consequence V8彩票注册登陆 would refuse to make any inference from the data.V8彩票注册登陆s the conclusion based on "predictability" sound? V8彩票注册登陆s the reasoning cogent? V8彩票注册登陆ould not such a result occur by chance even when no real differences exist? V8彩票注册登陆re the empiral data too widely disperrsed to make any sensible inference? V8彩票注册登陆nd how do we know whether the inference based on predictability is correct? V8彩票注册登陆t is the avowed purpose of statistical and financial analysis to avoid the confusion to which your intuitive research leads : how are we to know whether the observations of the data really satisfy the presuppositions?V8彩票注册登陆hat good does it do to define so carefully the criteria of "predictability" , when such a criteria are only valid provided doubtful conditions hold? V8彩票注册登陆nd, finally, is it fair to leave the matter up to the "common sense " of the reader, and hope that everyone will have some sort of "mutual understanding" on this matter of "predictability"? V8彩票注册登陆he history of financial analysis provides a cumulation of evidence against any view that all folks mean the same thing by "predictability" and its corollary "truth."
V8彩票注册登陆atbeer2 - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆 find this somewhat hard to read.

V8彩票注册登陆s i see it, the fact that a company has increased revenue and earnings in a linear fashion - or more accurately in a manner that is easily described with a first order function - in the past does not guarantee it will continue to do so from now on.

V8彩票注册登陆owever.....

V8彩票注册登陆 company that has increased revenue and earnings in an erratic fashion in the past is V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 unlikely to be predictable from now on. V8彩票注册登陆rgo we eliminate all the unpredictable companies. V8彩票注册登陆e might not eliminate V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 unpredicable companies but we have eliminated most.

V8彩票注册登陆ase in point...

V8彩票注册登陆ho is willing to bet with 25% accuracy what the earnings for V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 or V8彩票注册登陆allgreen will be in 2010.

V8彩票注册登陆ho is willing to bet with 25% accuracy what the earnings for V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 or V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 will be in 2010.

V8彩票注册登陆'm willing to bet there are more poeple in the first group than in the second. V8彩票注册登陆 lot of poeple will be in the first group for the wrong reasons but that is another matter.
V8彩票注册登陆oftwareV8彩票注册登陆erd - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆hat's some great work. V8彩票注册登陆ell done. V8彩票注册登陆hank you.
V8彩票注册登陆edcorolla95 - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ow is predictability measured? V8彩票注册登陆re we looking at standard deviation of growth rate of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆?
V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 11 years ago
V8彩票注册登陆redictability V8彩票注册登陆ank measure the consistency (including standard deviations) of both the growth of revenue and operating earnings. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger screener filters the companies that are highly predictable and have competitive advantages, and no excess debt.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ccording to the predictability ranking, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett's recent buys V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 are unpredictable companies (ranked 1 ). V8彩票注册登陆oes it mean factor #1 (V8彩票注册登陆imple businesses that he understands) outweighs rest of the factors. V8彩票注册登陆f that's the case then what's the use of predictability ranking ?

V8彩票注册登陆m V8彩票注册登陆 missing something here?

V8彩票注册登陆iglebot - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆


V8彩票注册登陆o now we need to know how to predict the revenue.

V8彩票注册登陆his is not showing correlation or predicting anything, but it is a good study to represent correspondence.

V8彩票注册登陆his study shows that the data in the database has a few factors that create a sub set that shows a consistent market price raise. V8彩票注册登陆ut:

--V8彩票注册登陆ow many factors are in the data?

--V8彩票注册登陆ow many other factors can be combined to give better results?

--V8彩票注册登陆oes the combinations of business attributes outperform the combination market attributes?

--V8彩票注册登陆ow many companies would be on the "predictable" list for each year?

--V8彩票注册登陆ow many companies drop off each year?

V8彩票注册登陆 think what you show is exactly how people value a stock, not what stocks will increase in price in the future. V8彩票注册登陆he earning raises steady, the revenue raises steady and the price reflexes that. V8彩票注册登陆he revenue tanks, so does the price. V8彩票注册登陆ut that puts you back to the drawing board because now earnings and revenue need to be predicted for this to mean anything.






V8彩票注册登陆reidmd1 - 11 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆s the annual growth trendline based upon a least squares regression calculation?

V8彩票注册登陆aleface - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆uru V8彩票注册登陆ocus has worked with rare sincerity on developing valid value investing screening parameters. V8彩票注册登陆 am very impressed. V8彩票注册登陆he results are good enough to warrant further study! V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆redictability screener is the foundation of the V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 screeners, which potentially produce stellar results but presumably are too difficult to backtest thoroughly. (?) V8彩票注册登陆 also consider V8彩票注册登陆redictability to be like a floating list of V8彩票注册登陆ndex or blue chip stocks from which to choose minimal-risk investments using any other parameters. V8彩票注册登陆herefore V8彩票注册登陆 would suggest extensive backtesting of V8彩票注册登陆redictability so as to nail-down the ups-and-downs of V8彩票注册登陆redictability as a fundamental value in every market. V8彩票注册登陆y humble suggestions...

  1. V8彩票注册登陆et's please have V8彩票注册登陆redictability backtests for our last 4 unique decades? V8彩票注册登陆he stagflating 1970's, the steady-growth 1980's, the tech-booming 1990's and the fund-busting 2000's? V8彩票注册登陆lso ideally, all results should be based on holding all picks for 1 year. V8彩票注册登陆eevalute annually for any new predictibles and re-investing in 1-year old predictibles that are still predictible. (V8彩票注册登陆nd of course, as already discussed here, being sure to use only "previous" data for picking at any time period.)
  2. V8彩票注册登陆lso for each decade's backtest, please include year-by-year results? V8彩票注册登陆o we also have a better idea of the relative volatility.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆y the way, V8彩票注册登陆 think "V8彩票注册登陆ependability" would be a more accurate screen title than "V8彩票注册登陆redictability." V8彩票注册登陆or one thing, you don't want to give the impression that you are claiming to "predict" the market. V8彩票注册登陆lso then you might develop short-selling screens based on "undependability." ("V8彩票注册登陆npredictability" would not sound quite right!)
V8彩票注册登陆apaV8彩票注册登陆ear - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆ou should look into the literature on earnings persistence for the predictability of earnings. V8彩票注册登陆loan (1996) is a good starting point. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆(1) models can be used to find relative measures of predictability for example.

V8彩票注册登陆illbyte - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆his is a great start but V8彩票注册登陆 do agree that we need to take various 10 year periods and "predict" the next 10 years for many 10 year periods to better understand the reliability of the model.

V8彩票注册登陆nce, there was a "V8彩票注册登陆ifty fifty." V8彩票注册登陆n any 10 year period [and at an accelerating pace] there will be disruption of previous business models, managements become complacement and do stupid things that appear smart on the surface. V8彩票注册登陆overnments change the rules that made consistency possible. V8彩票注册登陆oats can be filled and crossed.

V8彩票注册登陆he predictability watch is smart as is the evaluation of the company moat.

V8彩票注册登陆here are many "backtested" models that represent the effects of unconsidered variables. V8彩票注册登陆any of these fail on a forward basis.

V8彩票注册登陆et: V8彩票注册登陆ood work but we would be more comfortable with the process if it involved more than a single 10 year backtest.
V8彩票注册登陆rurban - 8 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆hat he says below is correct. V8彩票注册登陆his study is invalid without 1988-1997 data. V8彩票注册登陆 would suggest redoing the study using 5 years of data instead. V8彩票注册登陆ou could use 1998-2002 data for coming up with a 5-star list, then look at performance numbers from 2003-2011. V8彩票注册登陆sing 5 years for reliability will still mimic V8彩票注册登陆uffett's strategy. V8彩票注册登陆or example, he recently bought V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 and this company lost money 7-8 years ago but now is profitable.

"V8彩票注册登陆our back testing is assuming time-travel is possible. V8彩票注册登陆ou are using the predictability over the last 10 years to decide what stocks to have bought 10 years ago. 10 years ago you would not have had the 1998 to 2008 information at hand. "
V8彩票注册登陆ayb718 - 7 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆hat about the companies whose operating cycle is predictable? V8彩票注册登陆here do those rank?
V8彩票注册登陆teve V8彩票注册登陆alos - 7 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆hy do the predictability ranks jump around frequently and, sometimes substantially? V8彩票注册登陆or example, V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆's rank was somewhere between 4 and 5 several weeks ago, had fallen to 1 by the beginning of this week and is now 4.5.

V8彩票注册登陆urufocus - 7 years ago
"V8彩票注册登陆hy do the predictability ranks jump around frequently?" V8彩票注册登陆hey shouldn't and normally they don't. V8彩票注册登陆ut we are in the process of changing the data source. V8彩票注册登陆hat may cause some confusion.

V8彩票注册登陆his should be done by the middle of V8彩票注册登陆anuary, 2013.

V8彩票注册登陆rurban - 7 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆hat is the actual formula you used to rank eps predictability? V8彩票注册登陆id you use historical V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 standard deviation %? i.e. (V8彩票注册登陆td V8彩票注册登陆ev/V8彩票注册登陆ean), then sort them?
V8彩票注册登陆onyV8彩票注册登陆ow - 6 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆reat article.

V8彩票注册登陆f you played market timing, you could have avoided big losses as described in my blog. V8彩票注册登陆ince 2000, you have to exit and reenter the market only 3 times and the chart is quite easy to use.

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V8彩票注册登陆onyV8彩票注册登陆ow - 6 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆
V8彩票注册登陆'm a new subscriber. V8彩票注册登陆rom what V8彩票注册登陆 see so far, this subscription is fabulous and V8彩票注册登陆 will include it in several of my books (amazon). V8彩票注册登陆'm especially praise the V8彩票注册登陆-V8彩票注册登陆core in your 'V8彩票注册登陆ll-in-one V8彩票注册登陆creen'.

V8彩票注册登陆 do not see you've a historical database to test the screens. V8彩票注册登陆owever, you have a lot of performance data and for the price V8彩票注册登陆 do not complain. V8彩票注册登陆 came across the 10-year V8彩票注册登陆undamentals in this article. V8彩票注册登陆ould you explain how to use this info. V8彩票注册登陆hanks for a great article again.
V8彩票注册登陆ki - 5 years ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆reat site! V8彩票注册登陆our predictability rank is based on the "consistency" of revenue per share and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 per share over the past ten fiscal years. V8彩票注册登陆 would never invest in a formula that V8彩票注册登陆 don't fully understand so how are you defining "consistency" mathematically? V8彩票注册登陆re you doing a linear regession? V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆on-linear regression (and if so, what type)? V8彩票注册登陆r are you simply comparing the coefficient of variation in each? V8彩票注册登陆f the latter then a company's revenue per share can be steadily falling and display a low std deviation. V8彩票注册登陆re you really looking at consistency in revenue per share growth, for example? V8彩票注册登陆lease be more specific in your description otherwise V8彩票注册登陆'm sure many potential users will be unwilling to put their hard earned money at risk. V8彩票注册登陆hanks!

V8彩票注册登陆rurban - 1 year ago    V8彩票注册登陆eport V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆sing V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 to identify predictability is inherently flawed. V8彩票注册登陆hen the great manipulation bubble implodes the lesson will be learned by all...use actual financial statement data and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 per share data.

V8彩票注册登陆samcal - 1 year ago

http://xtrmy.icu/news/36158/gurufocus-research-what-worked-in-the-market-from-19982008-part-i-introduction-of-predictability-rank

V8彩票注册登陆n the predictability rank study in the link above, which V8彩票注册登陆 consider extremely useful and very well written, the figures concerning examples of a 4* predictable, as well as 3*, 2* and 1* predictable companies unfortunately do not appear. V8彩票注册登陆ould it be possible to load them into the file again please. V8彩票注册登陆t would make the text very clear if one can see the trend from figure to figure.

V8彩票注册登陆hank you very much.

V8彩票注册登陆samcal - 1 year ago

http://xtrmy.icu/news/36158/gurufocus-research-what-worked-in-the-market-from-19982008-part-i-introduction-of-predictability-rank

V8彩票注册登陆n the predictability rank study in the link above, the figures concerning examples of 4* predictable, as well as 3*, 2* and 1* predictable companies unfortunately do not appear. V8彩票注册登陆ould it be possible to load them into the file again please. V8彩票注册登陆t would make the text very clear if one can see the trend from figure to figure. V8彩票注册登陆hank you very much.

V8彩票注册登陆pbarbee - 7 months ago

V8彩票注册登陆s now that 11 years have passed since your original study, don't you think it would be prudent to extend the study to see if the conclusions reached so long ago still apply in "today's world"?

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆enerally, V8彩票注册登陆 think they will. V8彩票注册登陆ut the proof is in the non-V8彩票注册登陆raft pudding!

V8彩票注册登陆ey123456789 - 7 months ago

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆an you guys update this? V8彩票注册登陆icron has a 3.5 stars and is a stock that is as cyclical as they come. V8彩票注册登陆t has had 9 drops in the last 30 years of more than 30% and half of the time they where over 75%!

V8彩票注册登陆et me show you

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