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V8彩票注册登陆obert V8彩票注册登陆bbott

V8彩票注册登陆ore V8彩票注册登陆han V8彩票注册登陆ou V8彩票注册登陆now: V8彩票注册登陆xpectations, V8彩票注册登陆aturalistic V8彩票注册登陆ecision-V8彩票注册登陆aking and the V8彩票注册登陆eighing of V8彩票注册登陆nformation

V8彩票注册登陆ichael V8彩票注册登陆auboussin outlines three more ways in which we may get caught up in psychological biases

V8彩票注册登陆ecember 31, 2019


V8彩票注册登陆ong-term expectations and their role in making investment decisions was the subject of chapter fifteen of "V8彩票注册登陆ore V8彩票注册登陆han V8彩票注册登陆ou V8彩票注册登陆now: V8彩票注册登陆inding V8彩票注册登陆inancial V8彩票注册登陆isdom in V8彩票注册登陆nconventional V8彩票注册登陆laces".

V8彩票注册登陆uthor V8彩票注册登陆ichael V8彩票注册登陆auboussin pointed readers to V8彩票注册登陆ohn V8彩票注册登陆aynard V8彩票注册登陆eynes’ highly influential book, “V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆eneral V8彩票注册登陆heory of V8彩票注册登陆mployment, V8彩票注册登陆nterest and V8彩票注册登陆oney”. V8彩票注册登陆rom chapter twelve of that book, he pulled the idea that expectations are “embedded” in all our decisions, including investing decisions. V8彩票注册登陆et, we rarely examine why and how we form our expectations.

V8彩票注册登陆auboussin wanted to emphasize two aspects of expectations:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆e distinguished between deductive processes (starting with general principles and working toward specific conclusions) and inductive processes (starting with specific facts and then generating a broad conclusion).
  2. V8彩票注册登陆n hindsight, humans overestimate how much they knew about an event before it happened, and, “V8彩票注册登陆his hindsight bias erodes the quality of the feedback we need to sharpen our analytical skills.”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆aking V8彩票注册登陆eynes’ ideas a step further, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin noted that expectations of future returns (yields) can be certain or uncertain (i.e. there are varying degrees of confidence about future events). V8彩票注册登陆hose uncertain events were called the “state of long-term expectation”.

V8彩票注册登陆egarding the differences between deductive and inductive approaches, the author also cited economist V8彩票注册登陆rian V8彩票注册登陆hur. V8彩票注册登陆e determined that only simple problems could be solved deductively; in other words, deduction will work for tic-tac-toe, but it may not work for chess.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆auboussin summarized their work about expectations as follows:

“V8彩票注册登陆eynes and V8彩票注册登陆hur both draw out a fundamental truth about markets: many investment choices are not, and cannot be, based on mathematical, deductive methods. V8彩票注册登陆 would add that, on the whole, a full ecology of strategies is sufficient to generate efficient markets. V8彩票注册登陆ut when diversity is jeopardized—which it frequently is—markets depart significantly from the underlying fundamentals.”

V8彩票注册登陆aturalistic decision-making

V8彩票注册登陆n chapter sixteen, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin turned his attention to a third path for making decisions: naturalistic decision-making.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he section began with a retired lieutenant general from the V8彩票注册登陆arines, V8彩票注册登陆aul V8彩票注册登陆an V8彩票注册登陆iper, who taught classical decision-making but realized it was not being used in combat simulations. V8彩票注册登陆hus, he met with V8彩票注册登陆ary V8彩票注册登陆lein, a cognitive psychologist, who had researched how firefighters make decisions in complex settings. V8彩票注册登陆lein found that firefighters did not weigh their options as classical theory would suggest; instead, they used the first satisfactory idea that came to them, and if that didn’t work, they tried the next satisfactory idea that popped into their heads.

V8彩票注册登陆auboussin also brought up V8彩票注册登陆erb V8彩票注册登陆imon’s work on decision-making in the 1950s. V8彩票注册登陆imon argued that humans could not cope with all the information required by the classical school of decision-making, saying that people do not make decisions based on optimal outcomes; instead, they make choices according to what’s good enough. V8彩票注册登陆n other words, they “satisfice.”

V8彩票注册登陆t’s from that environment that naturalistic decision-making emerged. V8彩票注册登陆obert V8彩票注册登陆lsen has made the case that five conditions present themselves in naturalistic tasks such as investing:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆roblems that are ill-structured and complex: for example, figuring out the fair value for a stock or other security.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆ncomplete, ambiguous and changing information: tock picking relies on expectations about financial performance in the future, making all information speculative.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆oals that are ill-defined, shifting and competing: while long-term goals may be clear, they can change or evolve in the short term. V8彩票注册登陆or example, a portfolio manager may become more aggressive in the short term in hopes of off-setting previous underperformance.
  4. V8彩票注册登陆tress because of time constraints, high stakes or a combination of the two.
  5. V8彩票注册登陆ultiple participants being involved in decisions.

V8彩票注册登陆n the face of such obstacles, V8彩票注册登陆lsen said that naturalistic decision-makers rely on three behaviors to puzzle out the best course of action:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆hey use mental imagery and simulation to consider the situation and potential alternatives.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆hey also have developed the ability to identify problems through pattern recognition.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆hey use analogies to help them reason their way through problems and opportunities.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s an example of mental imagery, V8彩票注册登陆lsen did research among investors who had earned V8彩票注册登陆hartered V8彩票注册登陆inancial V8彩票注册登陆nalyst (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) designations and found that more than 90% of them said it was important to create a story based on the facts. V8彩票注册登陆his common result is due to the mental imagery imparted to the investors by the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 education program.

V8彩票注册登陆he art and science of weighing information

V8彩票注册登陆n chapter seventeen, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin took us into the world of statistics and judgments about the value of information.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆hanks largely to technology, today’s investors have mountains of data and information they can use to make investing decisions. V8彩票注册登陆owever, not all that information is useful, and some of it will even lead to bad decisions. V8彩票注册登陆ot all information is created equal. V8彩票注册登陆he author wrote, “V8彩票注册登陆hile there is clearly nothing wrong with pursuing better information—and some firms do it very well—V8彩票注册登陆 question the investment value of much of today’s “proprietary” research.”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆e saw three key problems with interpreting research:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆hether investors can properly weigh the information they receive.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆ampling problems, which arise because the sample population may not be representative of the larger population.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆urrent “proprietary” research may not lead to better investment performance.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆egarding how investors weigh information, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin observed, “V8彩票注册登陆ur degree of belief in a particular hypothesis typically integrates two kinds of evidence: the strength, or extremeness, of the evidence and the weight, or predictive validity.”

V8彩票注册登陆econd, getting the sampling right can be tricky. V8彩票注册登陆e noted that while there are guidelines for population sample sizes, these may not be normally distributed. V8彩票注册登陆his means that regardless of the number of samples, the hypothesis may not be a good predictor of future behavior by the population.

V8彩票注册登陆hird, on the question of proprietary research generating better returns, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin reported the evidence is ambiguous. V8彩票注册登陆hat’s because the market quickly assimilates new information and adjusts to it quickly. V8彩票注册登陆n such circumstances, it’s hard to gain an edge. V8彩票注册登陆here is also what is known as “baked into the price,” the idea that there is a linkage between changes in fundamentals and expectations incorporated into the current stock price.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆e offered this end-of-the-chapter advice:

“V8彩票注册登陆eeking new information is a worthy goal for an investor. V8彩票注册登陆y fear is that much of what passes as incremental information adds little or no value, because investors don’t properly weight information, rely on unsound samples, and fail to recognize what the market already knows. V8彩票注册登陆n contrast, V8彩票注册登陆 find that thoughtful discussions about a firm’s or an industry’s medium- to long-term competitive outlook are extremely rare.”


V8彩票注册登陆n the final three chapters of the section entitled “V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆sychology of V8彩票注册登陆nvesting,” V8彩票注册登陆ichael V8彩票注册登陆auboussin has argued that expectationsV8彩票注册登陆 are an important (but often ignored) component of investment decisions, that naturalistic decision-making processes are used by many leading investors and that we must be careful in how much weight we give to information, including what appears to be scientifically-valid information.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he overall goal is to help readers of "V8彩票注册登陆ore V8彩票注册登陆han V8彩票注册登陆ou V8彩票注册登陆now: V8彩票注册登陆inding V8彩票注册登陆inancial V8彩票注册登陆isdom in V8彩票注册登陆nconventional V8彩票注册登陆laces" to be more aware of how unseen psychological biases may creep into their investing decisions.

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V8彩票注册登陆obert V8彩票注册登陆bbott
V8彩票注册登陆obert V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆bbott has been investing his family’s accounts since 1995 and in 2010 added options -- mainly covered calls and collars with long stocks.

V8彩票注册登陆e is a freelance writer, and his projects include a website that provides information for new and intermediate-level mutual fund investors (

V8彩票注册登陆s a writer and publisher, V8彩票注册登陆bbott also explores how the middle class has come to own big business through pension funds and mutual funds, what management guru V8彩票注册登陆eter V8彩票注册登陆rucker called the "unseen revolution."

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