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V8彩票注册登陆obert V8彩票注册登陆bbott

V8彩票注册登陆ore V8彩票注册登陆han V8彩票注册登陆ou V8彩票注册登陆now: V8彩票注册登陆e V8彩票注册登陆areful V8彩票注册登陆ith V8彩票注册登陆ehavioral V8彩票注册登陆inance

V8彩票注册登陆auboussin explains the importance of collective behavior in markets and stock prices

V8彩票注册登陆ecember 30, 2019

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V8彩票注册登陆hat was V8彩票注册登陆ichael V8彩票注册登陆auboussin trying to tell us by saying to beware of behavioral finance, as he does in the title to chapter fourteen of "V8彩票注册登陆ore V8彩票注册登陆han V8彩票注册登陆ou V8彩票注册登陆now: V8彩票注册登陆inding V8彩票注册登陆inancial V8彩票注册登陆isdom in V8彩票注册登陆nconventional V8彩票注册登陆laces"?

V8彩票注册登陆n previous chapters, he has gone over many of the psychological traits that can trip us up as we try to act as rational investors. V8彩票注册登陆he point in this chapter is that we need to be just as thoughtful about our use of behavioral finance as we are about any other strategy or tool.

V8彩票注册登陆e began the chapter with a brief review of classical economic theory, which assumed that people would behave rationally if they had perfect knowledge of all alternatives and understood the consequences of their decisions.

V8彩票注册登陆f course, we know that none of us are entirely rational all the time. V8彩票注册登陆owever, those assumptions did allow previous generations of economists to do research that led to a better understanding of our behavior.

V8彩票注册登陆ome economists, recognizing this gap between theory and reality, developed the field of behavioral economics. V8彩票注册登陆o bridge that gap, they combined psychology with classical economics. V8彩票注册登陆ccording to V8彩票注册登陆auboussin, “V8彩票注册登陆he goal is to close the gap between how we actually make decisions and how we should make decisions.”

V8彩票注册登陆t’s an admirable goal, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin conceded, but he also pointed out that “poor thinking sometimes sneaks under the behavioral finance umbrella—even by the field’s experts.” V8彩票注册登陆o illustrate, he created this syllogism:

  • V8彩票注册登陆umans are irrational.
  • V8彩票注册登陆arkets are made up of humans.
  • V8彩票注册登陆herefore, markets are irrational.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆t all seems quite logical and straightforward. V8彩票注册登陆owever, we need to remember that the behavior of investors comes in two forms: collective and individual. V8彩票注册登陆he latter addresses how we can avoid being caught in psychological traps, while the former looks at the potentially irrational activities of groups:

“V8彩票注册登陆ere’s my main point: markets can still be rational when investors are individually irrational. V8彩票注册登陆ufficient investor diversity is the essential feature in efficient price formation. V8彩票注册登陆rovided the decision rules of investors are diverse—even if they are suboptimal—errors tend to cancel out and markets arrive at appropriate prices. V8彩票注册登陆imilarly, if these decision rules lose diversity, markets become fragile and susceptible to inefficiency.”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆e need not worry about individuals being irrational in this instance, but we should be concerned if too many individuals are irrational, in the same way, at the same time.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆ut another way, understanding individual irrationality should help us avoid the psychological traps that could make our own decision making less than optimal. V8彩票注册登陆nderstanding the dynamics of collective irrationality will help us understand and perhaps outperform the market.

V8彩票注册登陆igging further, V8彩票注册登陆auboussin noted that experts in behavioral finance understand the role of diversity in moving prices. V8彩票注册登陆owever, he took exception to this perspective from the experts:

“V8彩票注册登陆ince investors are irrational and their strategies are rarely uncorrelated, markets are inefficient. V8彩票注册登陆urther, arbitrage is insufficient to bring markets back to efficiency. V8彩票注册登陆o inefficiency is the rule, and efficiency is the exception. V8彩票注册登陆ctive portfolio management in a fundamentally inefficient market is a mug’s game.”

V8彩票注册登陆rom there, he argued that diverse individuals are responsible for efficient outcomes in many different complex systems, and that, too, is the case in the markets. V8彩票注册登陆urther, “V8彩票注册登陆iversity is the default assumption, and diversity breakdowns are the notable (and potentially profitable) exceptions.”

V8彩票注册登陆ccording to the author, the critical question for investors is this: "V8彩票注册登陆re investors diverse enough to generate an efficient market?" V8彩票注册登陆is answer was, “V8彩票注册登陆f you think across multiple dimensions, including information sources, investment approach (technical versus fundamental), investment style (value versus growth), and time horizon (short versus long term), you can see why diversity is generally sufficient for the stock market to function well.”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆o, diversity tends to produce efficient markets—and breakdowns in diversity make the markets inefficient (or more inefficient).

V8彩票注册登陆ne cause of collective breakdowns is a phenomenon known as herding. V8彩票注册登陆t occurs when many investors make the same decisions based on the ideas of others and not on the basis of their own knowledge. V8彩票注册登陆auboussin wrote, “V8彩票注册登陆arkets do tend to have phases when one sentiment becomes dominant. V8彩票注册登陆hese diversity breakdowns are consistent with booms (everyone acts bullish) and busts (everyone acts bearish).”

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆nfortunately, there is no reliable way of measuring investor diversity. V8彩票注册登陆till, as the author noted, “V8彩票注册登陆he key to successful contrarian investing is to focus on the folly of the many, not the few.”

V8彩票注册登陆n my efforts to understand the content of this chapter, V8彩票注册登陆’ve tried to look at it through the lens of a value investor. V8彩票注册登陆rom that perspective, V8彩票注册登陆 see something of what V8彩票注册登陆 expected in the sense that value investing always depends on many other investors discounting the value of a stock without sufficiently considering its overall merits.

V8彩票注册登陆eactions to earnings reports are an example of the herd overreacting to an unexpected gain or loss. V8彩票注册登陆hen a herd coalesces, diversity in the market is diminished, thus opening opportunities for value investors.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆hen prices drop too far, value investors will see opportunities and begin buying, which, in effect, brings at least some diversity back into the market. V8彩票注册登陆n the other hand, if prices go too high, short-sellers will step in, also returning greater diversity to the market.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 also suspect that diversity in the market may be a driving force behind reversion to the mean, a process that’s akin to a rubber band returning to its original shape once it is released. V8彩票注册登陆t appears prices will diverge further from the mean as markets become less diverse and return to the mean as diversity increases.

V8彩票注册登陆onclusion

V8彩票注册登陆or those of us who thought we had a grasp on the concepts of behavioral finance, V8彩票注册登陆ichael V8彩票注册登陆auboussin had a surprise up his sleeve: "V8彩票注册登陆here is individual behavior and there is collective behavior."

V8彩票注册登陆he author has focused on collective behavior in this chapter, explaining that markets are more efficient with greater diversity and less efficient with lesser diversity.

V8彩票注册登陆hus, a value investor has to be a contrarian, looking for bargains in areas where the crowd has become less diversified.

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V8彩票注册登陆obert V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆bbott has been investing his family’s accounts since 1995 and in 2010 added options -- mainly covered calls and collars with long stocks.

V8彩票注册登陆e is a freelance writer, and his projects include a website that provides information for new and intermediate-level mutual fund investors (whatisamutualfund.com).

V8彩票注册登陆s a writer and publisher, V8彩票注册登陆bbott also explores how the middle class has come to own big business through pension funds and mutual funds, what management guru V8彩票注册登陆eter V8彩票注册登陆rucker called the "unseen revolution."


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