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V8彩票注册登陆iscussion of the V8彩票注册登陆ristol-V8彩票注册登陆yers contingent value right


V8彩票注册登陆ne of my better investments of 2019 was V8彩票注册登陆elgene (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆:V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆), which was acquired by V8彩票注册登陆ristol-V8彩票注册登陆yers (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆:V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆). V8彩票注册登陆t first, the merger was threatened by activist V8彩票注册登陆alueV8彩票注册登陆ct, which really widened the spread. V8彩票注册登陆owever, the merger was eventually completed.

V8彩票注册登陆n addition to making a nice return on the deal, V8彩票注册登陆ristol-V8彩票注册登陆yers also issued a contingent value right, or V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, upon closing. V8彩票注册登陆his V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is now publicly traded under the ticker (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) for approximately $3.

V8彩票注册登陆he contingent value right is worth either $0 or $9. V8彩票注册登陆t pays out $9 and is subsequently dissolved if the following drugs have received V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 approval by a certain date:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆zanimod (V8彩票注册登陆ecember 31, 2020)

  2. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆iso-cel (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆017) (V8彩票注册登陆ecember 31, 2020)

  3. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆b2121 (V8彩票注册登陆arch 31, 2021)

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆hile looking into the probabilities of these late stage therapies receiving approval, V8彩票注册登陆 found this table by V8彩票注册登陆lacrite V8彩票注册登陆onsulting very helpful:

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆ased on this chart, my estimate is that V8彩票注册登陆zanimod will get approved with 94% probability. V8彩票注册登陆iso-cel should have a chance of around 92% to get approved, and bb2121 should be in that range as well. V8彩票注册登陆here's a minor possibility that even if the V8彩票注册登陆hase 3 trials for these drugs fail, the therapies will still get V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 approval for a secondary indication.

V8彩票注册登陆o get to the combined probability of success here you multiply these probabilities. V8彩票注册登陆've calculated a probability of around 76% that these drugs will all get approved and the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 will pay out the $9 per share. V8彩票注册登陆ased on these odds, the expected value of the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is about $6.75, which is quite a bit higher than the $3 it is trading at as of the writing of this article.

V8彩票注册登陆 have chosen to ignore the time value of money here to simplify things. V8彩票注册登陆his will all be resolved before 2021, and if successful, the upside is about 125%. V8彩票注册登陆he expected value is about 68%. V8彩票注册登陆lthough the outcome is binary and a 100% loss is possible, this is a very interesting security.

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