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V8彩票注册登陆elated V8彩票注册登陆icles:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆hy V8彩票注册登陆ingapore V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ay V8彩票注册登陆eliver V8彩票注册登陆etter V8彩票注册登陆eturns with V8彩票注册登陆ess V8彩票注册登陆isk?

V8彩票注册登陆lobal V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluations and V8彩票注册登陆xpected V8彩票注册登陆uture V8彩票注册登陆eturns

V8彩票注册登陆pdated at V8彩票注册登陆un, 12 V8彩票注册登陆an 2020 20:30:07 -0600

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆here V8彩票注册登陆re V8彩票注册登陆e with V8彩票注册登陆lobal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆aluations?

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆efore we start, we would like to point out that at the left sidebar of this page you can find the implied future returns of the world’s 18 largest stock markets, sorted from the highest return to the lowest for developed markets and emerging markets.

V8彩票注册登陆ince we published the market valuation and implied future return based on the percentage of total market cap (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) relative to the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, it has served as a good indicator for the overall market valuation of the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. stock market. V8彩票注册登陆e have also added the V8彩票注册登陆hiller V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆 pageV8彩票注册登陆, which looks at the market valuation from a normalized earnings perspective, and gives similar conclusions on overall market valuations and future market returns.

V8彩票注册登陆hose two pages have served the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market very well. V8彩票注册登陆owever, a lot of users asked us about the international market. V8彩票注册登陆ndeed, sometimes investors are better served to invest internationally. V8彩票注册登陆he purpose of this page is to provide an overview of the stock market valuations of the 18 largest economies in the world. V8彩票注册登陆he indicator we use is still the percentages of the total market caps of these countries over their own V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s.

V8彩票注册登陆s pointed out by V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett, the percentage of total market cap (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) relative to the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” V8彩票注册登陆nlike the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market, the histories of the data for other countries are not long enough to provide a more accurate projection of future returns. V8彩票注册登陆ut still we believe that this page can give a good idea on where the market stands currently with overall valuations.

V8彩票注册登陆efore we get into the details of how we arrived at our results, these are the implied returns of the stock market worldwide, including both developed markets and emerging markets, as displayed in the left sidebar. V8彩票注册登陆his page is updated daily.

V8彩票注册登陆ssumptions about V8彩票注册登陆inding out the V8彩票注册登陆mplied V8彩票注册登陆uture V8彩票注册登陆eturns of the V8彩票注册登陆tock V8彩票注册登陆arket

V8彩票注册登陆e have discussed in great detail how to calculate the future returns of the market for the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. marketV8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆he principle is the same for the stock market. V8彩票注册登陆hree factors contribute to future market returns. V8彩票注册登陆hese three factors are:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆uture business growth: V8彩票注册登陆e assume that average future growth will be the same as past growth. V8彩票注册登陆his may overestimate growth for fast-growing economies.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆ividends: V8彩票注册登陆he average future dividends per year in the next five years will be equal to the average of the last five years. V8彩票注册登陆his may underestimate dividend yield as in general, dividends will grow as economies grow.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆hange in market valuation: V8彩票注册登陆 big assumption here in the market valuation is that the ratio of market cap to V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 will revert to its previous mean during a full market cycle, which will last 7-8 years.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆otal investment return is given by:

V8彩票注册登陆nvestment V8彩票注册登陆eturn (%) = V8彩票注册登陆ividend V8彩票注册登陆ield (%)+ V8彩票注册登陆usiness V8彩票注册登陆rowth (%)+ V8彩票注册登陆hange of V8彩票注册登陆aluation (%)

V8彩票注册登陆ata V8彩票注册登陆ources:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆uture business growth: V8彩票注册登陆imilar to what we did for the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market, we estimate the future business growth using the past V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth of these countries. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 data we use is either from the reported data of the statistics departments of these countries or data published by the V8彩票注册登陆orld V8彩票注册登陆ank. V8彩票注册登陆or some of these countries, only annual data is available.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆ividends: V8彩票注册登陆e use the dividends of the corresponding iV8彩票注册登陆hares country V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 to estimate the current dividend yield of the country’s stock market. V8彩票注册登陆hile the dividends of these V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s were never consistent, we use the average of the dividends of the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s over the last five years to estimate future dividends.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆hange in market valuation: V8彩票注册登陆s detailed in the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market valuation, we use the V8彩票注册登陆ilshire V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket index to estimate the total market cap of the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market. V8彩票注册登陆owever, no similar indexes exist for other countries. V8彩票注册登陆nstead we use the most dominant market indexes in those countries as proxies of the total market indexes. V8彩票注册登陆e assume that these indices change proportionally with the total market. V8彩票注册登陆hese indexes are then converted to the total market cap based on the ratios of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 data published by the V8彩票注册登陆orld V8彩票注册登陆ank.

V8彩票注册登陆he details of the indexes we used for different countries are in the page for each country. V8彩票注册登陆lick on the country’s name on the left sidebar to check out.

V8彩票注册登陆rror V8彩票注册登陆ources:

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he sources of errors are from the assumptions:

  1. V8彩票注册登陆uture average V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth might be different from past growth. V8彩票注册登陆his can be especially true for countries of emerging markets that have high growth rates. V8彩票注册登陆he slowdown can affect the results dramatically.
  2. V8彩票注册登陆e are using V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 data instead of V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 data for the calculations.
  3. V8彩票注册登陆n most cases the index we use covers at least 70% of the total market in the country. V8彩票注册登陆ut the total market may deviate slightly from the index.
  4. V8彩票注册登陆he mean of the historical valuation may not be the mean for the future, especially when we do not have enough historical data.

V8彩票注册登陆ow to interpret the data:

V8彩票注册登陆f we have less than 20 years of data, the history of the data is certainly too short for an accurate prediction of future returns. V8彩票注册登陆he current ratio of market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 in this page gives you an idea on where the market stands from historical perspective.

V8彩票注册登陆e may not come to an accurate projection for future returns, especially for emerging markets. V8彩票注册登陆ut we believe that this page can give us a good idea on where we stand for different countries in terms of historical market valuations.

V8彩票注册登陆etailed V8彩票注册登陆ata and V8彩票注册登陆iscussions:

V8彩票注册登陆his page presents the market valuation of the 18 largest economies in the world. V8彩票注册登陆he market valuation is measured by the ratio of total market cap to V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆hese are the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s in V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. dollars for these countries. V8彩票注册登陆riginal V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 data was in each country’s national currency. V8彩票注册登陆hey are converted into the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. dollar using the exchange rate of V8彩票注册登陆ay 2014.

V8彩票注册登陆s listed, the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. has the largest economy, followed by V8彩票注册登陆hina, V8彩票注册登陆apan, V8彩票注册登陆ermany, V8彩票注册登陆rance, etc. V8彩票注册登陆he market cap of the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. is also the largest, as of V8彩票注册登陆ay 2014. V8彩票注册登陆owever, the market caps of other countries do not display as monotone a decline as the V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆, as shown in the chart below:

V8彩票注册登陆s the results, the ratio of the total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 for the countries from the largest economy to the smallest is shown below:

V8彩票注册登陆utting your mouse over the columns of the chart you will find the exact current total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 ratios for each country. V8彩票注册登陆e can see that the ratio varies dramatically across different countries. V8彩票注册登陆istorically these ratios swing wildly. V8彩票注册登陆or instance, the ratio of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 climbed to 355% in 1989, when V8彩票注册登陆apan’s economy was booming and nothing could stop the country of the rising sun. V8彩票注册登陆ut the ratio sank to as low as 60% in 2003 and 2009, when the country of the rising sun seemed to have plunged into permanent darkness. V8彩票注册登陆he chart below is the current ratio of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 and its historical range. V8彩票注册登陆t is also listed in the table at the left side of the chart. V8彩票注册登陆he data is updated daily.

V8彩票注册登陆ountryV8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 ($V8彩票注册登陆rillion)V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket/V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆atio (%) V8彩票注册登陆istorical V8彩票注册登陆in. (%)V8彩票注册登陆istorical V8彩票注册登陆ax. (%) V8彩票注册登陆ears of V8彩票注册登陆ataV8彩票注册登陆ountry V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆istorical minimum and maximum,  and current ratio of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆

V8彩票注册登陆s we discussed above, the total returns of the future market come from three factors: V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth, dividend yield and change of overall market valuation. V8彩票注册登陆ssuming the market valuation will revert to the historical mean, the contributions from each component are listed in the table. V8彩票注册登陆he countries are separated into developed market and emerging market. V8彩票注册登陆nly the countries that have at least 10 years of data are displayed.

V8彩票注册登陆ontributions from V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆rowth

V8彩票注册登陆hese are the past V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 growth rate of these countries. V8彩票注册登陆pparently developing countries had much faster growth than developed countries. V8彩票注册登陆his may over-estimate the future returns of the emerging market.

V8彩票注册登陆ontributions from V8彩票注册登陆ividend V8彩票注册登陆ield

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he average of the dividend payment of the country V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s over the last five years was used to estimate the dividend yield. V8彩票注册登陆ield is calculated by dividing the dividend by the current prices of the corresponding V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆s.

V8彩票注册登陆ontributions from V8彩票注册登陆aluation V8彩票注册登陆everse to the V8彩票注册登陆ean

V8彩票注册登陆ssuming the market valuation will reverse to the mean over the next 8 years, these are the contribution from mean reversion of the market valuation.

V8彩票注册登陆gain, these are the total returns from all the three components for these countries:

V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆e can clearly see that for the emerging market, the contribution from economic growth is much higher than in the developed market. V8彩票注册登陆or instance, the average growth for V8彩票注册登陆hina’s economy is more than 16% a year for the eight-year period before 2012; V8彩票注册登陆ndia’s economy averaged about 15% of growth a year. V8彩票注册登陆hese high growth rates contributed to the future returns substantially.

V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆ut on the other hand, the economic growth of these countries cannot continue at these rates forever. V8彩票注册登陆hey may slow down drastically in the future. V8彩票注册登陆onsidering these factors and the shorter history of data, we believe that the implied returns for the emerging market carry much higher uncertainty.

V8彩票注册登陆n the other hand, the projection for developed countries should be much more reliable, especially when we have a longer history of data available. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market valuation page has done a decent job in predicting the future returns of the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. market.

V8彩票注册登陆 V8彩票注册登陆lick on the country on the left sidebar to check out the details for each country.


V8彩票注册登陆dd V8彩票注册登陆otes, V8彩票注册登陆omments

V8彩票注册登陆f you want to ask a question or report a bug, please create a support ticket.

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