V8彩票注册登陆an V8彩票注册登陆sset V8彩票注册登陆llocations of V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett V8彩票注册登陆e a V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ndicator?

V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆vervalued, V8彩票注册登陆ow to V8彩票注册登陆nvest?

V8彩票注册登陆tay defensive! V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener is the screen for high quality companies at undervalued prices. V8彩票注册登陆he portfolio of V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger companies has outperformed the market every year.

V8彩票注册登陆heck V8彩票注册登陆ut the V8彩票注册登陆uffett-V8彩票注册登陆unger V8彩票注册登陆creener

V8彩票注册登陆ssets V8彩票注册登陆llocations (%)

V8彩票注册登陆ash/V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆hareholder's V8彩票注册登陆quity (%)

V8彩票注册登陆onds to V8彩票注册登陆hareholder's V8彩票注册登陆quity (%)

V8彩票注册登陆tock to V8彩票注册登陆hareholder's V8彩票注册登陆quity (%)

V8彩票注册登陆s the stock market continues to make new record highs, value investors start to find fewer bargains and worry about the overvaluation of the market. V8彩票注册登陆e have had a lot of discussions about this. V8彩票注册登陆n principle, you can always find bargains in any market, but if as whole the stock market is overvalued, you might just be finding stocks that are relatively undervalued instead of truly valued.

V8彩票注册登陆uruV8彩票注册登陆ocus hosts two overall market valuation pages. V8彩票注册登陆ne is based on the ratio of total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆he other is based on V8彩票注册登陆hiller V8彩票注册登陆/V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆he valuation indicator used by V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆 is the percentage of total market cap (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆) over the V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆ince the actual difference between V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 and V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is minimal, our stock market valuation based on the total market cap over V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 is a very good indicator. V8彩票注册登陆hen the ratio is below 50%, the market is significantly undervalued. V8彩票注册登陆hen the ratio is between 50% and 75%, the market is modestly undervalued. V8彩票注册登陆hen the ratio is among 75% to 90%, the market is fairly valued. V8彩票注册登陆hen the ratio is between 90% and 115%, the market is modestly overvalued. V8彩票注册登陆therwise, the market is significantly overvalued.

V8彩票注册登陆s of today, the V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆arket V8彩票注册登陆ndex is at $ 26000.2 billion, which is about 119.7% of the last reported V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆. V8彩票注册登陆his indicates that the market is V8彩票注册登陆ignificantly V8彩票注册登陆vervalued. V8彩票注册登陆he V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆 stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of 0.5%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. V8彩票注册登陆his includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 2.25%.

V8彩票注册登陆ne question we were asked by users is whether we can use V8彩票注册登陆urus’ asset allocations as an indicator for the bullishness or bearishness of the V8彩票注册登陆urus. V8彩票注册登陆hat is a good question. V8彩票注册登陆he first V8彩票注册登陆uru we want to check is, of course, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett.

V8彩票注册登陆e will use the asset allocations of V8彩票注册登陆erkshire V8彩票注册登陆athaway (V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆)(V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆.V8彩票注册登陆) as the indicator. V8彩票注册登陆e want to see whether V8彩票注册登陆erkshire V8彩票注册登陆athaway’s asset allocations can reflect V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆’s thoughts about the market valuations. V8彩票注册登陆s he bullish or bearish on the stock market? V8彩票注册登陆re bonds a better investment to him? V8彩票注册登陆he data we have comes from annual and interim reports of V8彩票注册登陆erkshire V8彩票注册登陆athaway. V8彩票注册登陆t is the quarterly data that ends on 3/31, 6/30, 9/30 and 12/31 each year. V8彩票注册登陆ur research is developed into four parts.

1. V8彩票注册登陆ercentage of V8彩票注册登陆ash, V8彩票注册登陆onds and V8彩票注册登陆tocks

V8彩票注册登陆an we use the percentages of stocks, bonds and cash as an indication on the preferences of V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆’s asset allocations?

V8彩票注册登陆he above chart 1 shows the percentage of cash and cash equivalents, fixed maturity securities and equity securities in V8彩票注册登陆erkshire V8彩票注册登陆athaway’s assets since 12/31/1995.

V8彩票注册登陆e point out that the relative percentages can be significantly affected by the prices of stocks and bonds. V8彩票注册登陆or instance, in the market crash of 2008, V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s stock holdings were down about 50%, which dramatically reduced the percentages of stocks. V8彩票注册登陆ut in general, we can still see the preference of V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆 at different periods.

V8彩票注册登陆erkshire had the highest level of stocks in 1995, which was more than 80% of all. V8彩票注册登陆t stayed that way until 1998, when V8彩票注册登陆uffett was worried about the overvaluation of the marketV8彩票注册登陆 and significantly increased V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s holdings in bonds (V8彩票注册登陆ixed V8彩票注册登陆aturity V8彩票注册登陆ecurities). V8彩票注册登陆e all know that starting in the year 2000, bonds have delivered much better returns than stocks.

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆he percentage of equity securities declined significantly because of the financial crisis since 2007. V8彩票注册登陆is cash position went up greatly since 2000 and went down since 2005. V8彩票注册登陆rom 3/31/2010 to 6/30/2011, his cash and cash equivalents’ position increased slightly.

V8彩票注册登陆urrently V8彩票注册登陆erkshire has about 63% of its liquid asset in V8彩票注册登陆quity V8彩票注册登陆ecurities (V8彩票注册登陆tocks), 32% in V8彩票注册登陆ash and V8彩票注册登陆ash V8彩票注册登陆quivalents (V8彩票注册登陆ash), and 5% in V8彩票注册登陆ixed V8彩票注册登陆aturity V8彩票注册登陆ecurities (V8彩票注册登陆onds).

V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆learly V8彩票注册登陆uffett is bearish on bonds. V8彩票注册登陆s he bullish on stocks? V8彩票注册登陆robably yes.

2. V8彩票注册登陆ash and V8彩票注册登陆ash V8彩票注册登陆quivalents (V8彩票注册登陆ash) to V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆hareholders’ V8彩票注册登陆quity

V8彩票注册登陆e want to see if there is a clear pattern that V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett increased his cash and cash equivalents position during the financial crisis so as to minimize the potential dramatic loss resulting from equity securities. V8彩票注册登陆ere V8彩票注册登陆 use cash and cash equivalents divided by total shareholders’ equity.

V8彩票注册登陆rom above chart 2, we can see that V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆 reduced V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s cash positions dramatically in 2001 to 2002, when the tech bubble burst and he was finding bargains. V8彩票注册登陆e then steadily increased cash positions starting in 2003. V8彩票注册登陆n 2005 through 2006 he was saying that he had an elephant gun, but couldn’t find an elephant. V8彩票注册登陆he highest figure is 50.96% at the end of the first quarter of 2005. V8彩票注册登陆fter that, V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s cash level declined and he invested in V8彩票注册登陆ank of V8彩票注册登陆merica and V8彩票注册登陆oldman V8彩票注册登陆achs in the financial crisis, and bought V8彩票注册登陆urlington V8彩票注册登陆orthern and V8彩票注册登陆ubrizol afterwards. V8彩票注册登陆ost recently he deployed $12 billion in V8彩票注册登陆einz.

V8彩票注册登陆n recent quarter, V8彩票注册登陆erkshire's cash relative to equity ratio is about 29.16%.

3. V8彩票注册登陆ixed V8彩票注册登陆aturity V8彩票注册登陆ecurities (V8彩票注册登陆onds) to V8彩票注册登陆otal V8彩票注册登陆hareholders’ V8彩票注册登陆quity

V8彩票注册登陆rom above chart 1 and chart 3, we can see during 3/31/1999 to 12/31/2002, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett was very bullish on bonds as bonds were at 60% of V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s total equity. V8彩票注册登陆is bonds position started to decline from more than 40% of his assets allocation to around 20% as he bought more stocks. V8彩票注册登陆tarting 3/31/2007, V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffettV8彩票注册登陆 only slightly added more positions in bonds. V8彩票注册登陆et we can tell from his fixed maturity securities, as demonstrated on the above charts, it is likely that he is bearish on bonds now.

V8彩票注册登陆n recent quarter, V8彩票注册登陆erkshire's bonds relative to equity ratio is about 4.36%.

4. V8彩票注册登陆quity V8彩票注册登陆ecurities (V8彩票注册登陆tocks) to V8彩票注册登陆hareholders’ V8彩票注册登陆quity

V8彩票注册登陆rom above chart 1 and chart 4, we can see that V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett reduced V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s stock positions dramatically in 1998, indicating he was very bearish on stocks. V8彩票注册登陆e then steadily decreased cash positions and bought more stocks until 2003. V8彩票注册登陆fter that, V8彩票注册登陆erkshire’s stocks level went up a little bit to 56.95% at the end of the third quarter of 2008. V8彩票注册登陆here was another dramatic decline of stocks position from 9/30/2008 to 3/31/2009, probably because the stocks’ value shrunk during financial crisis.

V8彩票注册登陆n recent quarter, V8彩票注册登陆erkshire's stocks relative to equity ratio is about 57.87%, which is low relative to most of the time since 1995, but much higher than bonds and cash. V8彩票注册登陆t is likely that V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett is relatively bullish on stocks.

V8彩票注册登陆onclusion: V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett is known for not caring what others do in the stock market. V8彩票注册登陆ut from his asset allocations we can get some idea on where he is finding value among stocks, bonds and cash. V8彩票注册登陆pparently he is bearish with bonds as the percentage of bonds is at the lowest level. V8彩票注册登陆s for stocks, he is relative bullish. V8彩票注册登陆tocks are now his largest position relative to bonds and cash. V8彩票注册登陆nd V8彩票注册登陆erkshire has been buying more V8彩票注册登陆ells V8彩票注册登陆argo, V8彩票注册登陆avita, etc. V8彩票注册登陆or the details of what V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett is buying, go to V8彩票注册登陆arren V8彩票注册登陆uffett’s stock picks.<V8彩票注册登陆V8彩票注册登陆>

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